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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+11.52vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.72+6.47vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.48+7.18vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.19+6.86vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.27+2.71vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.10vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62-0.04vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68-1.69vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59-2.03vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-3.72vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.30-2.90vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.60-7.68vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.42-8.34vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-9.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.52Rochester Institute of Technology-0.640.9%1st Place
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8.47Hampton University0.724.5%1st Place
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10.18Christopher Newport University0.482.1%1st Place
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10.86Washington College0.191.8%1st Place
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7.71George Washington University1.274.8%1st Place
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7.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.556.2%1st Place
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6.96Fordham University1.626.2%1st Place
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6.31Cornell University1.689.0%1st Place
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6.97Old Dominion University1.596.2%1st Place
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6.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.4%1st Place
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8.1Webb Institute1.303.7%1st Place
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4.32U. S. Naval Academy2.6015.8%1st Place
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4.66Georgetown University2.4215.3%1st Place
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4.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5715.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Maguire | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 16.9% | 57.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 3.6% |
| David Grace | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 16.2% | 20.2% | 11.8% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 24.8% | 19.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 15.8% | 17.2% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 15.3% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 15.9% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.