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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+4.66vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.64+2.35vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands2.77+0.98vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.83+1.76vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.52+1.70vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.83+2.95vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.60-0.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.71-2.08vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.77-0.04vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine1.35-2.73vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-7.27vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara0.16-2.21vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.46-1.70vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.64-2.38vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.43-3.71vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-9.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.66University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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4.35University of Southern California2.640.2%1st Place
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3.98California State University Channel Islands2.770.2%1st Place
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6.76University of California at Los Angeles1.830.1%1st Place
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7.7University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Los Angeles0.830.0%1st Place
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7.52University of California at San Diego1.600.1%1st Place
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6.92University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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9.96Arizona State University0.770.0%1st Place
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8.27University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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4.73University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.2%1st Place
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11.79University of California at Santa Barbara0.160.0%1st Place
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13.3University of California at Los Angeles-0.460.0%1st Place
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13.62University of California at San Diego-0.640.0%1st Place
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13.29University of California at San Diego-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 16.6% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 18.5% | 16.1% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emelia Pelliccio | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nora Brackbill | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| John Olson | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Heller | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Steven Cassingham | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Weis | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Cobi Allen | 16.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erica Byerley | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 17.4% | 14.6% | 9.7% |
| Zachary Chin | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 22.1% | 25.5% |
| Alex Sinclair | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 22.3% | 31.8% |
| James Roberts | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 22.4% | 26.3% |
| Kiersten McDonald | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.