Race 4A

short-beach-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Rebecca Jackson 15.2% 15.1% 15.7% 14.5% 11.6% 10.9% 8.2% 4.6% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Mark Towill 31.5% 26.1% 17.3% 11.0% 6.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Altreuter 7.4% 9.6% 11.5% 13.1% 10.7% 13.3% 11.8% 9.3% 6.8% 4.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0%
T. Max Bulger 8.7% 8.5% 10.7% 15.1% 11.4% 12.5% 10.2% 9.6% 7.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
Genoa Warner 13.3% 14.1% 13.1% 13.4% 13.3% 10.1% 10.5% 5.8% 3.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Thomas Chronert 4.2% 3.3% 6.5% 6.2% 7.8% 8.9% 10.7% 12.6% 13.6% 11.2% 9.4% 4.9% 0.7%
John Vrolyk 9.1% 10.0% 9.3% 8.6% 13.2% 13.4% 11.8% 8.4% 7.3% 5.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Nathan Stevens 3.4% 3.8% 4.3% 4.5% 6.8% 6.6% 7.8% 12.6% 13.9% 14.3% 11.7% 8.3% 2.0%
Jacob Tronaas 4.0% 4.8% 4.6% 7.1% 8.3% 9.3% 10.1% 13.2% 12.4% 12.5% 8.6% 4.5% 0.6%
Douglas Young 1.2% 1.7% 3.1% 2.0% 4.0% 3.1% 5.1% 7.2% 11.9% 12.4% 18.8% 20.0% 9.5%
Amanda Keshian 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 3.2% 3.3% 4.0% 5.3% 8.1% 13.7% 18.7% 25.0% 14.1%
Ben Dexter 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1.4% 1.0% 2.2% 2.6% 4.3% 9.1% 13.9% 63.2%
Brennen Drysdale 1.0% 1.6% 2.3% 2.0% 3.0% 3.4% 6.6% 8.3% 9.5% 14.2% 17.5% 21.0% 9.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.