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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.80vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.47-0.04vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.30+5.38vs Predicted
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5California State University Channel Islands0.37+2.86vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego1.81-1.60vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University1.51-1.91vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.42-0.59vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine2.17-6.36vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.44-3.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.33-2.38vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara0.02-4.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.91vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.46-5.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara-2.93-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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2.96University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.86California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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4.4University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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5.09Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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7.41University of Southern California0.420.0%1st Place
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3.64University of California at Irvine2.170.2%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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9.62University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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8.76University of California at Santa Barbara0.020.0%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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9.76University of California at San Diego-0.460.0%1st Place
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13.5University of California at Santa Barbara-2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 16.8% | 17.6% | 16.6% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 25.5% | 23.8% | 18.5% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louise Lehman | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 17.2% | 12.9% | 1.6% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 11.5% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 9.2% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Yuen | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Brian Hoover | 19.0% | 18.0% | 15.7% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Keefe | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 17.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% |
| Preston Beye | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 1.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 33.0% | 8.9% |
| Jiachao Yang | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 2.9% |
| Haille Hogfeldt | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 9.4% | 81.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.