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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at San Diego1.81+2.30vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.42+4.52vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-0.21vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.47-2.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine2.17-3.36vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University1.51-2.89vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.37-1.41vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-0.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.44-3.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.33-2.32vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara0.02-4.21vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.91vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.46-5.18vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara-2.93-2.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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7.52University of Southern California0.420.0%1st Place
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3.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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3.05University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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3.64University of California at Irvine2.170.2%1st Place
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5.11Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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7.59California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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9.41University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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9.68University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Santa Barbara0.020.0%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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9.82University of California at San Diego-0.460.0%1st Place
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13.49University of California at Santa Barbara-2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Delfino | 12.8% | 15.3% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Yuen | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| Ginger Luckey | 18.3% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 24.1% | 23.1% | 17.3% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 17.0% | 18.9% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 9.7% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Louise Lehman | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 2.7% |
| Gabriel Monti | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 3.3% |
| Preston Beye | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 1.1% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 17.0% | 32.8% | 8.5% |
| Jiachao Yang | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 18.7% | 15.0% | 2.5% |
| Haille Hogfeldt | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 80.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.