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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.80vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine2.17+0.49vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego1.81+0.31vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University1.51+0.04vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.47-2.86vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.44+0.75vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.37-0.37vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.33+0.50vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara0.02-1.27vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.42-3.25vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-3.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.46-4.15vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-1.02-4.02vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara-2.93-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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3.49University of California at Irvine2.170.2%1st Place
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4.31University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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5.04Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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3.14University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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7.75University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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7.63California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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9.5University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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8.73University of California at Santa Barbara0.020.0%1st Place
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7.75University of Southern California0.420.0%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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9.85University of California at San Diego-0.460.0%1st Place
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10.98University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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13.47University of California at Santa Barbara-2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 16.5% | 18.1% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 21.3% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 14.2% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 8.2% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 14.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 21.9% | 23.8% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 3.1% |
| Preston Beye | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 6.8% | 1.2% |
| Brandon Yuen | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Louise Lehman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 16.5% | 13.2% | 2.2% |
| Jiachao Yang | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 17.0% | 2.9% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 18.8% | 31.3% | 8.4% |
| Haille Hogfeldt | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 8.5% | 80.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.