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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.79vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands0.37+4.62vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego1.81+0.30vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University1.51-0.98vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara0.02+1.81vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine2.17-4.35vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California2.47-6.06vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-0.61vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.44-3.25vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.33-2.35vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.42-5.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.46-4.13vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-1.02-4.05vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara-2.93-2.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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7.62California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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4.3University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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5.02Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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8.81University of California at Santa Barbara0.020.0%1st Place
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3.65University of California at Irvine2.170.2%1st Place
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2.94University of Southern California2.470.3%1st Place
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9.39University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.75University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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9.65University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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7.76University of Southern California0.420.0%1st Place
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9.87University of California at San Diego-0.460.0%1st Place
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10.95University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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13.48University of California at Santa Barbara-2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 17.4% | 16.7% | 16.4% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 13.9% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Preston Beye | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 1.2% |
| Brian Hoover | 17.5% | 18.6% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 25.5% | 23.5% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louise Lehman | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 2.6% |
| Gabriel Monti | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 3.0% |
| Brandon Yuen | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Jiachao Yang | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 14.9% | 16.3% | 3.3% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 18.1% | 30.4% | 8.8% |
| Haille Hogfeldt | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 9.2% | 80.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.