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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.77vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands0.37+4.60vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University1.51+0.95vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.47-1.94vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.42+1.79vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.44+0.72vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine2.17-5.52vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.81-5.64vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-1.48vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.33-2.34vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara0.02-4.26vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.93vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.46-5.20vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara-2.93-2.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.77University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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7.6California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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4.95Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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3.06University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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7.79University of Southern California0.420.0%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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3.48University of California at Irvine2.170.2%1st Place
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4.36University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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9.52University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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9.66University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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8.74University of California at Santa Barbara0.020.0%1st Place
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11.07University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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9.8University of California at San Diego-0.460.0%1st Place
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13.49University of California at Santa Barbara-2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 17.3% | 16.1% | 18.2% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 24.1% | 21.5% | 16.9% | 17.2% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Yuen | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Gabriel Monti | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Brian Hoover | 20.8% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 16.5% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 12.7% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louise Lehman | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 2.3% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 3.0% |
| Preston Beye | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 1.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 32.4% | 8.9% |
| Jiachao Yang | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 3.0% |
| Haille Hogfeldt | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 9.0% | 81.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.