Race 5A

short-beach-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mark Towill 32.5% 23.0% 17.2% 12.1% 7.9% 3.3% 2.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brennen Drysdale 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 4.4% 6.0% 8.3% 11.7% 13.6% 18.2% 19.4% 7.2%
Genoa Warner 10.3% 15.7% 13.4% 12.8% 12.6% 13.7% 8.6% 6.7% 3.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
John Vrolyk 8.6% 6.9% 9.2% 13.2% 12.2% 11.0% 11.6% 10.5% 7.7% 5.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
T. Max Bulger 9.4% 10.6% 11.3% 12.1% 10.5% 11.6% 13.0% 8.5% 6.5% 3.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Thomas Chronert 2.9% 5.5% 4.7% 7.3% 6.4% 9.0% 11.1% 14.3% 13.1% 11.6% 7.5% 5.5% 1.1%
Jacob Tronaas 4.7% 5.1% 5.6% 6.5% 8.5% 9.2% 10.1% 13.5% 11.4% 13.3% 7.3% 4.3% 0.5%
Rebecca Jackson 15.4% 15.6% 15.5% 13.3% 14.7% 10.4% 7.7% 3.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Douglas Young 1.3% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3% 3.1% 4.3% 4.5% 6.1% 10.2% 14.2% 19.0% 20.5% 9.4%
James Altreuter 9.4% 8.8% 12.0% 11.9% 12.8% 10.7% 11.0% 8.7% 7.8% 4.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Amanda Keshian 1.1% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 3.4% 4.2% 7.1% 6.7% 13.5% 19.0% 23.8% 14.9%
Nathan Stevens 2.2% 3.3% 4.6% 3.5% 6.1% 7.8% 8.3% 9.5% 15.6% 14.0% 13.8% 9.4% 1.9%
Ben Dexter 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 3.4% 3.2% 6.9% 15.6% 64.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.