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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University2.46+5.74vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.10vs Predicted
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3Columbia University2.55+3.65vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+2.94vs Predicted
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5University of Buffalo1.34+5.99vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.88-0.28vs Predicted
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7Hampton University2.11+1.32vs Predicted
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8University of Maryland2.18-0.10vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.87-3.30vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.77-0.57vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.64-0.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-3.44vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.50-2.29vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University1.40-2.89vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.55-1.38vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.24-1.50vs Predicted
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17William and Mary1.72-7.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.74Christopher Newport University2.460.1%1st Place
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6.1University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.65Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.1%1st Place
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10.99University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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5.72U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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8.32Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.9University of Maryland2.180.1%1st Place
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5.7Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.43George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.2Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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10.71Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.11Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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13.62University of Virginia0.550.0%1st Place
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14.5University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.240.0%1st Place
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9.82William and Mary1.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Buhl | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Michael Russom | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Golison | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Luke Miller | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.5% |
| Marissa Lihan | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Corina Radtke | 10.5% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jay Spector | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% |
| Chris Myers | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% |
| Austin Neuman | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Gene Merewether | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| Andrew Murphy | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 5.9% |
| Linda Codega | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 19.7% | 27.9% |
| Adam Rybczynski | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 18.4% | 41.0% |
| Adam Siegel | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.