← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.42vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+6.01vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+1.73vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy2.51+1.06vs Predicted
-
5Columbia University2.43+0.11vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University2.67-1.29vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University1.57+0.60vs Predicted
-
8Princeton University0.03+3.71vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia-1.52+6.36vs Predicted
-
10University of Maryland-1.03+4.35vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University2.51-5.88vs Predicted
-
12William and Mary1.29-3.65vs Predicted
-
13Drexel University0.22-1.55vs Predicted
-
14University of Buffalo0.92-4.42vs Predicted
-
15Syracuse University0.43-4.21vs Predicted
-
16University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.21-1.27vs Predicted
-
17Hampton University-0.35-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.42University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
-
8.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
-
4.73St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
-
5.06U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
-
5.11Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
-
4.71George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
-
7.6Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
-
11.71Princeton University0.030.0%1st Place
-
15.36University of Virginia-1.520.0%1st Place
-
14.35University of Maryland-1.030.0%1st Place
-
5.12Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
-
8.35William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
-
11.45Drexel University0.220.0%1st Place
-
9.58University of Buffalo0.920.0%1st Place
-
10.79Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
-
14.73University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.210.0%1st Place
-
12.93Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 23.6% | 18.0% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Galster | 11.5% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Peck | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 12.0% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Ross | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Sipp | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Michael Keane | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 21.1% | 43.1% |
| Brandon Gotwalt | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 19.0% | 23.1% | 19.3% |
| Jacob Spracher | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Ciccariello | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Cem Ayanoglu | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Cormier | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 26.3% | 25.1% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 17.7% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.