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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+3.58vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.51+2.91vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.51+1.98vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16-0.50vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.57+2.50vs Predicted
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6William and Mary1.29+2.56vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-0.95vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University0.43+2.66vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo0.92+0.61vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.02-0.83vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.06-1.85vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.67-7.45vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.35-0.27vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.03-2.00vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.21-0.57vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-2.67+0.36vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland-1.03-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
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4.91Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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4.98U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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3.5University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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7.5Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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8.56William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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6.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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10.66Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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9.61University of Buffalo0.920.0%1st Place
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9.17Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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9.15Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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4.55George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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12.73Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.0Princeton University0.030.0%1st Place
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14.43University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.210.0%1st Place
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16.36University of Virginia-2.670.0%1st Place
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14.25University of Maryland-1.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Galster | 14.5% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Peck | 11.4% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 21.4% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Ross | 3.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Guinn | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Cem Ayanoglu | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.9% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 20.5% | 18.4% | 13.0% | 2.3% |
| Elizabeth Sipp | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 16.8% | 15.9% | 7.0% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Cormier | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 21.2% | 32.6% | 12.9% |
| Erick Chiroles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 72.7% |
| Brandon Gotwalt | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 21.7% | 28.4% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.