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📊 Prediction Accuracy
70.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+3.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.51+1.99vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.51+1.00vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.67-0.56vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62-1.23vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.02+2.22vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.57-0.56vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo0.92+0.65vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.06-0.95vs Predicted
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11William and Mary1.29-2.53vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.43-1.19vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.35-0.19vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.21+0.52vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.03-3.15vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland-1.03-1.79vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia-2.67-0.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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4.99U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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5.0Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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4.44George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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4.77St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
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9.22Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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7.44Christopher Newport University1.570.1%1st Place
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9.65University of Buffalo0.920.0%1st Place
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9.05Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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8.47William and Mary1.290.0%1st Place
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10.81Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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12.81Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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14.52University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.210.0%1st Place
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11.85Princeton University0.030.0%1st Place
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14.21University of Maryland-1.030.0%1st Place
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16.39University of Virginia-2.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 23.2% | 19.4% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Peck | 10.3% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 12.6% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.8% | 15.8% | 15.1% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Galster | 12.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Richard Ross | 5.7% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cem Ayanoglu | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Scott Guinn | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 19.3% | 19.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% |
| Christopher Cormier | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 35.1% | 13.1% |
| Elizabeth Sipp | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 17.4% | 13.8% | 6.6% | 0.7% |
| Brandon Gotwalt | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 25.1% | 28.1% | 8.9% |
| Erick Chiroles | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 72.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.