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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.27vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.20+4.78vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+1.92vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University-0.41+4.90vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.90+6.54vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.10+0.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.40+2.70vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.39+1.55vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.88+2.59vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-1.14+2.82vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.75-0.09vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.92-0.39vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-1.05vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.93+2.20vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.91-3.14vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-1.13-3.32vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.03-4.94vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.35-4.29vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.43-4.80vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.36-2.52vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-2.21-3.85vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-2.18-4.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.27California Poly Maritime Academy1.3128.4%1st Place
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6.78University of Southern California0.208.3%1st Place
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4.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8312.8%1st Place
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8.9Arizona State University-0.414.7%1st Place
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11.54University of California at San Diego-0.903.1%1st Place
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6.95University of California at Santa Cruz0.107.1%1st Place
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9.7University of California at Berkeley-0.404.2%1st Place
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9.55Arizona State University-0.394.4%1st Place
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11.59University of California at Berkeley-0.882.9%1st Place
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12.82University of California at Davis-1.142.3%1st Place
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10.91University of California at Berkeley-0.752.4%1st Place
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11.61University of California at Los Angeles-0.922.2%1st Place
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11.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.003.1%1st Place
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16.2University of California at San Diego-1.931.1%1st Place
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11.86University of California at Davis-0.912.4%1st Place
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12.68San Diego State University-1.131.8%1st Place
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12.06University of California at Los Angeles-1.032.4%1st Place
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13.71University of California at San Diego-1.352.0%1st Place
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14.2University of California at Los Angeles-1.431.7%1st Place
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17.48Arizona State University-2.360.9%1st Place
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17.15University of California at San Diego-2.210.8%1st Place
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17.17University of California at San Diego-2.180.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 28.4% | 19.7% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 12.8% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emma Kalway | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Jack Zemke | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Scarlett Dawson | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Frank Hobson | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Joseph Weil | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 12.4% |
| Kamille Romero | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Blake Grossman | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| samson grunwald | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Maximus Suh | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| Christopher Milan | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.1% |
| Holden Clarke | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 27.2% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 16.2% | 21.6% |
| Cassidy Murray | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 20.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.