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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.89+4.66vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+4.70vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.98+6.99vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-0.19+10.58vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.79+1.02vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+8.26vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.68+4.83vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.35vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island0.88+0.48vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.38+2.26vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-1.58vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-2.25vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.290.00vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.19+1.34vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.83vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego0.52-4.28vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.15-1.64vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-2.13vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-8.71vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-9.06vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University0.74-9.52vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-1.72-1.32vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.45-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.66University of Southern California1.8913.6%1st Place
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6.7University of California at Santa Barbara1.749.3%1st Place
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9.99University of California at Berkeley0.984.5%1st Place
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14.58University of California at Davis-0.192.1%1st Place
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6.02University of California at Los Angeles1.7913.5%1st Place
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14.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.272.2%1st Place
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11.83University of California at San Diego0.683.1%1st Place
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7.65University of California at Los Angeles1.307.5%1st Place
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9.48University of Rhode Island0.885.5%1st Place
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12.26University of Southern California0.382.9%1st Place
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9.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.8%1st Place
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9.75California Poly Maritime Academy0.974.5%1st Place
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13.0San Diego State University0.292.2%1st Place
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15.34San Diego State University-0.191.6%1st Place
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13.17University of California at Berkeley0.313.1%1st Place
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11.72University of California at San Diego0.524.2%1st Place
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15.36University of California at San Diego-0.151.5%1st Place
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15.87University of California at Los Angeles-0.231.2%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Santa Cruz0.914.5%1st Place
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10.94University of California at Santa Cruz0.864.3%1st Place
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11.48Arizona State University0.743.1%1st Place
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20.68University of California at San Diego-1.720.4%1st Place
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20.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.450.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Winsor | 13.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| Grant Janov | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 1.1% |
| Noah Barton | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Coghlin | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Collignon | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 3.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| John Alexander | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Tobie Bloom | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 2.5% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 4.1% |
| Colin Olson | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Nodini | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 25.7% | 43.7% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 23.6% | 40.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.