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Timmie's Tune-Up

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 15 11 26
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 21 22 43
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 36 36 72
4 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illinois 1 43 46 89
5 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 70 51 121
6 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 79 55 134
7 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee 81 56 137
8 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 63 84 147
9 Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University Bowling Green 59 98 157
10 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 56 102 158
11 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 91 67 158
12 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 58 112 170
13 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 106 75 181
14 Marquette University Marquette University Marquette 108 80 188
15 Miami University Miami University Miami University 91 111 202
16 Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 112 90 202
17 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illinois 2 124 136 260
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 5 1 15 Matthew Graham '13
Britt Wedenoja '11
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 3 1 7 3 1 4 21 Christine Porter '11
Ella Stutz '13
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 7 5 5 5 5 2 2 5 36 Alex Lubben '13
Hannah Schriesheim '11
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illinois 1 4 3 7 7 3 12 BKD 2 43 Adelheid Rittmeyer '13
Megan Dawson '13
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3 11 12 3 2 10 7 8 56 Phillip Morley '13
Patrick Mcminn '12
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5 7 8 4 12 9 4 9 58 John O'Brien '18
Christine Dumphy '12
Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University Bowling Green 12 4 6 8 8 15 3 3 59 Thomas Mcritchie '10
Alex Novack '12
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 6 8 10 9 10 5 8 7 63 Amanda Leigh Snyder '10
Nina Lincoff '12
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 11 13 2 13 4 4 11 12 70 Alex Bogatko '10
Elizabeth Prentice '11
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 9 6 9 6 16 17 6 10 79 Luke Hiller '10
Anna Scott '11
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee 10 10 4 10 13 14 14 6 81 Greg Adams '12
Brittany Mcgrath '11
Miami University Miami University Miami University 13 12 13 11 11 8 10 13 91 David Keys '11 [1-8]
Liz Manley '10 [1-4, 7-8]
Bryn Dyar '12 [5-6]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 14 9 16 12 6 6 12 16 91 Michael Hamel '11
James Robertson '10
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 8 15 11 14 17 13 13 15 106 Mike Stoodley '12
Elizabeth Kinney '11
Marquette University Marquette University Marquette 15 DSQ 15 15 9 16 9 11 108 Patrick Farrell '13
Peter Mcnulty '13
Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 17 14 14 16 15 7 15 14 112 Peter Rocco '13
Emma Hughes '19
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illinois 2 16 16 17 17 14 11 16 17 124 Haley Johnson '14
Daniel Bartz '12
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 11 Nicholas Ridenour '12
Christina Baker '10
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 4 3 3 2 1 5 3 1 22 Allison Valentor '10
Margaux Stutz '11
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 1 4 2 10 6 3 5 5 36 David Kluger '12
Carolyn Fallert '12
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illinois 1 8 9 8 5 4 4 2 6 46 Emily Van Dam '12
Alexander Loch '12
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 6 7 12 7 9 2 4 4 51 Nachiketa Tiwari '11
Kathryn Burt '13
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 3 6 5 3 10 11 9 8 55 Paul Kaplan '13
Alexandra Weill '11
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee 5 2 7 14 3 8 8 9 56 Andrew Brill '12
Geet Sharma '11
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 9 11 4 9 7 7 6 14 67 Cameron Bates '10
Jordan Kristopik '12
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 14 14 15 4 5 9 7 7 75 Caleb Kiser '12
Nelson Oelker '12
Marquette University Marquette University Marquette 7 8 6 8 14 16 11 10 80 Philip Niles '12
Alexander Malinchoc '11
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 10 10 14 15 16 6 10 3 84 John Hodges '13
Christopher Bohl '13
Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 16 5 13 12 8 10 13 13 90 Andrew Twohey '18
Bradly Parker '11
Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University Bowling Green 12 16 9 6 12 14 14 15 98 Hilary Rieman '13
Matthew Mcelheny '13
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 15 12 16 13 11 12 12 11 102 Gavin Hussey '11
Peter Hiller '12
Miami University Miami University Miami University 13 17 10 16 15 13 15 12 111 Andrew Hoffman '10 [1-8]
Chris Hillman '12 [1-6]
Leslie Weiant '11 [7-8]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11 15 11 11 13 15 DNF DNS 112 Gregory Torrisi '11 [1-6]
Jeffrey Miller '12 [7-8]
Kevin Condit '13 [1-6]
Jacqueline Dai '13 [7-8]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illinois 2 17 13 17 17 DNF DNS DNS DNS 136 Daniel Bartz '12
Glen Ko '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bowling Green State UniversityBowling Green State University Bowling Green11336688
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons22447799
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illinois 13366881010
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illinois 24477991111
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Marquette668810101212
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University779911111313
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 199111113131515
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 21010121214141717
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 31111131315151818
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Michigan State88101012121414
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats1212141417177171
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 113131515181811
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 214141717717122
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish151518181133
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee7171224477
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1171771712244
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 21818113366

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bowling Green State UniversityBowling Green State University Bowling Green22447799
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons3366881010
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illinois 14477991111
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illinois 2668810101212
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Marquette779911111313
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University88101012121414
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 11010121214141717
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 21111131315151818
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 31212141417177171
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Michigan State99111113131515
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats13131515181811
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 114141717717122
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2151518181133
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish171771712244
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee11336688
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 11818113366
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 27171224477
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University Thomas Mcritchie '10 Alex Novack '12
Bowling Green Hilary Rieman '13 Matthew Mcelheny '13
Marquette University Marquette University Patrick Farrell '13 Peter Mcnulty '13
Marquette Philip Niles '12 Alexander Malinchoc '11
Miami University Miami University David Keys '11 [1-8] Liz Manley '10 [1-4, 7-8]
Bryn Dyar '12 [5-6]
Miami University Andrew Hoffman '10 [1-8] Chris Hillman '12 [1-6]
Leslie Weiant '11 [7-8]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Peter Rocco '13 Emma Hughes '19
Michigan State Andrew Twohey '18 Bradly Parker '11
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Mike Stoodley '12 Elizabeth Kinney '11
Wildcats Caleb Kiser '12 Nelson Oelker '12
Northwestern University Northwestern University Alex Lubben '13 Hannah Schriesheim '11
Wildcats 1 David Kluger '12 Carolyn Fallert '12
Northwestern University Northwestern University Amanda Leigh Snyder '10 Nina Lincoff '12
Wildcats 2 John Hodges '13 Christopher Bohl '13
University of Chicago University of Chicago Luke Hiller '10 Anna Scott '11
Maroons Paul Kaplan '13 Alexandra Weill '11
University of Illinois University of Illinois Adelheid Rittmeyer '13 Megan Dawson '13
Illinois 1 Emily Van Dam '12 Alexander Loch '12
University of Illinois University of Illinois Haley Johnson '14 Daniel Bartz '12
Illinois 2 Daniel Bartz '12 Glen Ko '15
University of Michigan University of Michigan Michael Hamel '11 James Robertson '10
Wolverines 1 Cameron Bates '10 Jordan Kristopik '12
University of Michigan University of Michigan Matthew Graham '13 Britt Wedenoja '11
Wolverines 2 Nicholas Ridenour '12 Christina Baker '10
University of Michigan University of Michigan Alex Bogatko '10 Elizabeth Prentice '11
Wolverines 3 Nachiketa Tiwari '11 Kathryn Burt '13
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame John O'Brien '18 Christine Dumphy '12
Fighting Irish Gregory Torrisi '11 [1-6]
Jeffrey Miller '12 [7-8]		 Kevin Condit '13 [1-6]
Jacqueline Dai '13 [7-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Christine Porter '11 Ella Stutz '13
Badgers 1 Allison Valentor '10 Margaux Stutz '11
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Phillip Morley '13 Patrick Mcminn '12
Badgers 2 Gavin Hussey '11 Peter Hiller '12
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Greg Adams '12 Brittany Mcgrath '11
UW Milwaukee Andrew Brill '12 Geet Sharma '11

Conditions — 11/14/2009 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1009.4 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SSW (200°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine8.7 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1009.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn · N 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.30
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.34 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →