Central Fall #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 29 34 63
2 Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 52 20 72
3 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 23 51 74
4 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 30 53 83
5 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 61 29 90
6 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 54 38 92
7 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 73 57 130
8 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 48 110 158
9 Penn State University Penn State University Penn State 87 83 170
10 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 93 85 178
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 1 1 3 2 3 5 2 2 2 2 23 Gerard Tonachel '13
Michael Cianfaglione '13
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 5 2 1 1 2 8 4 1 3 29 Nathaniel Sabatt '11
Kelsey Shevock '14
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 4 2 6 3 2 1 1 3 3 5 30 Tyler Kennedy '12
Dave Desimone '14
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 3 4 5 9 5 6 3 1 4 8 48 Samuel Bedinger '13
Paul Miller '14
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 7 3 1 6 4 4 5 10 5 7 52 Paul Luisi '11
Rachel Leedy '12
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 5 7 4 4 8 3 4 7 8 4 54 Jessica Thal '12 [1-10]
Sarah-Daye Hand '12 [1-8]
Annie Eckmann '14 [9-10]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 6 8 8 5 7 7 6 6 7 1 61 Mary Gamber '11
Kyle Trombley '11
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 10 6 10 7 6 10 7 5 6 6 73 Joan Boyle '14
Stephen Ciccariello '13
Penn State University Penn State University Penn State 8 9 7 8 10 8 10 8 10 9 87 Taylor Hoover '14
Caitlin Hickey '12
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 93 Byron Bell '13
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 2 1 4 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 20 Paul Stevens '14
Shawn Diamond '13
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 3 3 1 1 2 5 5 5 2 2 29 Gene Merewether '13
Caitlin Downey '13
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 2 3 4 6 2 4 3 5 4 34 George Prieto '13
Elizabeth Morrison '14
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 4 4 2 3 3 4 6 2 4 6 38 Maxwell Plarr '11
Ian Mcallister '14
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 5 5 5 7 7 6 1 7 1 7 51 Christian Geary '14
Matthew Guenther '14
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 9 7 7 5 4 3 3 4 6 5 53 Zachary Schippe '14 [1-10]
Rebecca Johnson '12 [1-2]
Emily Mccarthy '13 [3-10]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 6 7 1 57 Jennifer Mislinski '11
Nedko Yordanov '11
Penn State University Penn State University Penn State 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 83 Daniel Drummond '12
Kelly Mulcahey '13
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 85 Christopher Cormier '13
Francis Brown '13
Washington College Washington College Shoremen DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 110 Colum Mccurdy '??
Crystal Shearer '13
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Christopher Newport1133557799
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons224466881010
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore446688101022
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth5577991133
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen668810102244
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings7799113355
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Penn State881010224466
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers9911335577
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens101022446688
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen3355779911

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Christopher Newport224466881010
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons3355779911
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore5577991133
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth668810102244
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen7799113355
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings881010224466
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Penn State9911335577
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers101022446688
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens1133557799
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen446688101022

Conditions — 10/16/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1013.2 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.8 kn
avg  ·  max 14.8 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From NW (308°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1013.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 15 kn · SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington College: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →