Tom Curtis Memorial

HostGeorgetown
Date10/09/2010
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Hoyas	Hoyas	47	31	78
2	Midshipmen	Midshipmen	39	43	82
3	Seahawks	Seahawks	60	32	92
4	Colonials	Colonials	70	33	103
5	Wahoos	Wahoos	59	46	105
6	Monarchs	Monarchs	61	62	123
7	Christopher Newport	Christopher Newport	77	80	157
8	Tigers	Tigers	93	79	172
9	American	American	66	117	183
10	Maryland	Maryland	72	118	190
11	Rams	Rams	116	81	197
12	Pirates	Pirates	90	110	200
13	Loyola College	Loyola College	119	116	235
14	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	117	148	265
15	Salisbury	Salisbury	136	130	266
16	Tribe	Tribe	140	134	274

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Midshipmen	Midshipmen	2	5	11	2	8	5	1	2	1	2	39
Hoyas	Hoyas	1	1	1	1	1	1	12	9	10	10	47
Wahoos	Wahoos	13	8	4	5	14	7	2	1	2	3	59
Seahawks	Seahawks	4	7	3	12	DSQ	2	4	5	5	1	60
Monarchs	Monarchs	3	4	2	8	13	4	3	6	3	15	61
American	American	11	2	6	6	4	13	6	7	7	4	66
Colonials	Colonials	9	3	10	4	2	6	8	10	11	7	70
Maryland	Maryland	8	6	12	3	3	3	9	14	8	6	72
Christopher Newport	Christopher Newport	5	9	9	7	6	9	5	3	15	9	77
Pirates	Pirates	7	14	14	10	7	10	7	12	4	5	90
Tigers	Tigers	6	10	5	9	9	12	10	8	12	12	93
Rams	Rams	12	11	16	11	10	11	14	11	9	11	116
Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	16	12	13	DSQ	11	8	13	13	6	8	117
Loyola College	Loyola College	10	16	15	14	5	14	11	4	14	16	119
Salisbury	Salisbury	15	13	7	15	12	15	16	16	13	14	136
Tribe	Tribe	14	15	8	BKD	15	16	15	15	16	13	140

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Hoyas	Hoyas	1	3	1	3	5	1	3	4	5	5	31
Seahawks	Seahawks	2	5	7	4	4	2	1	2	3	2	32
Colonials	Colonials	5	2	4	5	2	3	2	1	1	8	33
Midshipmen	Midshipmen	6	1	2	2	9	6	5	3	6	3	43
Wahoos	Wahoos	8	6	3	8	3	5	4	6	2	1	46
Monarchs	Monarchs	4	8	12	1	7	4	6	5	8	7	62
Tigers	Tigers	9	9	8	11	1	11	12	10	4	4	79
Christopher Newport	Christopher Newport	7	4	6	10	6	7	11	11	9	9	80
Rams	Rams	3	11	9	6	10	9	8	7	12	6	81
Pirates	Pirates	14	7	15	13	15	14	7	8	7	10	110
Loyola College	Loyola College	13	13	10	9	11	8	16	14	11	11	116
American	American	11	10	5	7	14	16	13	12	14	15	117
Maryland	Maryland	15	12	11	12	8	12	10	9	16	13	118
Salisbury	Salisbury	12	14	16	15	13	10	9	16	13	12	130
Tribe	Tribe	10	15	14	16	12	13	15	15	10	14	134
Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	16	16	13	14	16	15	14	13	15	16	148

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
American American	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Christopher Newport Christopher Newport	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10
Rams Rams	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Colonials Colonials	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12
Hoyas Hoyas	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Pirates Pirates	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14
Loyola College Loyola College	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Maryland Maryland	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16
Midshipmen Midshipmen	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1
Monarchs Monarchs	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2
Tigers Tigers	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3
Salisbury Salisbury	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4
Seahawks Seahawks	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5
Wahoos Wahoos	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6
Tribe Tribe	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
American American	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Christopher Newport Christopher Newport	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9
Rams Rams	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Colonials Colonials	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11
Hoyas Hoyas	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Pirates Pirates	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13
Loyola College Loyola College	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Maryland Maryland	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15
Midshipmen Midshipmen	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2
Monarchs Monarchs	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1
Tigers Tigers	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4
Salisbury Salisbury	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3
Seahawks Seahawks	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6
Wahoos Wahoos	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5
Tribe Tribe	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7

Conditions — 10/09/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 52% · Pressure 1014.4 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 78°F ↓ 54°F

Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 5.7 kn

Gusts to 14.0 kn

From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1014.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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