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Midweek 'Fly - Fall #2

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons A 3 3 5 2 13 Kristina Schneider '16 [1-3]
Max Resnick '14 [4]
Max Resnick '14 [1-3]
Kristina Schneider '16 [4]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 A 2 1 4 7 14 Cali Warner '16 [1-3]
Aleksandra Kalinowska '16 [4]
Aleksandra Kalinowska '16 [1-3]
Cali Warner '16 [4]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 A 4 2 3 5 14 Marina Crowe '16 [1-3]
Sara Falcone '15 [4]
Sara Falcone '15 [1-3]
Marina Crowe '16 [4]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers A 1 7 7 1 16 David Perez '15 [1-3]
Noam Buckman '16 [4]
Noam Buckman '16 [1-3]
David Perez '15 [4]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 A 5 5 2 4 16 Matthew Vernacchia '15 [1-3]
Seth Booth '12 [4]
Seth Booth '12 [1-3]
Matthew Vernacchia '15 [4]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 A 6 4 1 6 17 Beckett Colson '16 [1-3]
Scarlett Koller '16 [4]
Scarlett Koller '16 [1-3]
Beckett Colson '16 [4]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers A 7 6 6 3 22 Sarah Mountjoy '14 [1-3]
Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [4]
Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [1-3]
Sarah Mountjoy '14 [4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2008 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons10101010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers5555
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers6666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 14444
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 21111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 38888
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 49999

Conditions — 10/17/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1014.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.46)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →