| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of South Florida | Abby Featherstone '13 | 33 |
| 2 |  |
University of Miami | Laura Hernandez '15 | 43 |
| 3 | |
University of South Florida | Dominique Wright '15 | 45 |
| 4 |  |
College of Charleston | Carly Shevitz '14 | 51 |
| 5 | |
University of Miami | Taylor Scheuermann '15 | 58 |
| 6 | |
University of South Florida | Colleen Hartman '13 | 60 |
| 7 | |
College of Charleston | Clerc Cooper '15 | 64 |
| 8 |  |
Eckerd College | Amy Baxter '13 | 68 |
| 9 | |
College of Charleston | Nicole Hause '14 | 68 |
| 10 | |
College of Charleston | Sarah Mackey '16 | 73 |
| 11 | |
Eckerd College | Lissa Mcclung '14 | 98 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of South Florida | Abby Featherstone '13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 33 |
|
University of Miami | Laura Hernandez '15 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 43 |
|
University of South Florida | Dominique Wright '15 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 45 |
|
College of Charleston | Carly Shevitz '14 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 51 |
|
University of Miami | Taylor Scheuermann '15 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 58 |
|
University of South Florida | Colleen Hartman '13 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 60 |
|
College of Charleston | Clerc Cooper '15 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 64 |
|
Eckerd College | Amy Baxter '13 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | OCS | 3 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 68 |
|
College of Charleston | Nicole Hause '14 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 68 |
|
College of Charleston | Sarah Mackey '16 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 73 |
|
Eckerd College | Lissa Mcclung '14 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 98 |
| Team | 1A | 2A | 3A | 4A | 5A | 6A | 7A | 8A | 9A | 10A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| College of Charleston Cougars 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 |
| College of Charleston Cougars 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 |
| Eckerd College Tritons 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Eckerd College Tritons 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| University of Miami Hurricanes 1 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| University of Miami Hurricanes 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| University of South Florida Bulls 1 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| University of South Florida Bulls 2 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| University of South Florida Bulls 3 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abby Featherstone '13 | University of South Florida Bulls 2 | 10/10 | 2.28 | 3.06 | +0.78 | 59th → 83rd | 1.7 | 16% | 3.3 / 5.0 |
| 2 | Laura Hernandez '15 | University of Miami Hurricanes 1 | 10/10 | 1.46 | 2.48 | +1.02 | 36th → 62nd | 3.1 | 12% | 4.3 / 6.3 |
| 3 | Dominique Wright '15 | University of South Florida Bulls 1 | 10/10 | 1.71 | 2.29 | +0.58 | 42nd → 59th | 1.0 | 23% | 4.5 / 5.9 |
| 4 | Carly Shevitz '14 | College of Charleston Cougars 4 | 10/10 | 1.58 | 2.08 | +0.50 | 39th → 54th | 0.8 | 30% | 5.1 / 6.1 |
| 5 | Taylor Scheuermann '15 | University of Miami Hurricanes 2 | 10/10 | 2.01 | 2.03 | +0.02 | 52nd → 53rd | 0.0 | 61% | 5.8 / 5.4 |
| 6 | Colleen Hartman '13 | University of South Florida Bulls 3 | 10/10 | 1.48 | 1.56 | +0.08 | 37th → 39th | 0.0 | 45% | 6.0 / 6.3 |
| 7 | Clerc Cooper '15 | College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 10/10 | 2.02 | 1.46 | −0.55 | 53rd → 36th | 1.1 | 72% | 6.4 / 5.4 |
| 8 | Amy Baxter '13 | Eckerd College Tritons 2 | 10/10 | 1.61 | 1.47 | −0.14 | 40th → 37th | 0.1 | 67% | 6.8 / 6.1 |
| 8 | Nicole Hause '14 | College of Charleston Cougars 3 | 10/10 | 1.55 | 1.43 | −0.12 | 39th → 34th | 0.1 | 67% | 6.8 / 6.1 |
| 10 | Sarah Mackey '16 | College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 10/10 | 1.38 | 1.21 | −0.17 | 33rd → 28th | 0.1 | 69% | 7.3 / 6.4 |
| 11 | Lissa Mcclung '14 | Eckerd College Tritons 1 | 10/10 | 1.09u | -0.53 | −1.62 | 25th → 2nd | 6.6 | 98% | 9.8 / 6.9 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
