Back to the Bayou

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Green Wave Green Wave Green Wave 31 MRP 45 MRP 76 MRP
2 Aggies 1 Aggies 1 Aggies 1 43 MRP 40 MRP 83 MRP
3 Argonauts Argonauts Argonauts 40 MRP 44 MRP 84 MRP
4 Aggies Aggies Aggies 54 MRP 33 MRP 87 MRP
5 Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1 36 MRP 60 MRP 96 MRP
6 Wolfpack Wolfpack Wolfpack 47 MRP 59 MRP 106 MRP
7 Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2 61 MRP 50 MRP 111 MRP
8 Aggies 2 Aggies 2 Aggies 2 64 MRP 51 MRP 115 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT
Green Wave Green Wave Green Wave 1 2 1 2 3 2 31 MRP
Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1 4 1 4 4 2 1 36 MRP
Argonauts Argonauts Argonauts 3 4 3 3 4 3 40 MRP
Aggies 1 Aggies 1 Aggies 1 7 6 2 1 1 6 43 MRP
Wolfpack Wolfpack Wolfpack 2 3 7 5 5 5 47 MRP
Aggies Aggies Aggies 6 5 6 6 7 4 54 MRP
Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2 5 7 8 8 6 7 61 MRP
Aggies 2 Aggies 2 Aggies 2 8 8 5 7 8 8 64 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT
Aggies Aggies Aggies 3 3 1 1 3 2 33 MRP
Aggies 1 Aggies 1 Aggies 1 1 1 4 DSQ 2 3 40 MRP
Argonauts Argonauts Argonauts 2 6 2 DSQ 4 1 44 MRP
Green Wave Green Wave Green Wave 6 2 3 DSQ 1 4 45 MRP
Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2 5 4 7 4 5 5 50 MRP
Aggies 2 Aggies 2 Aggies 2 4 5 5 3 8 6 51 MRP
Wolfpack Wolfpack Wolfpack 7 8 6 5 6 7 59 MRP
Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1 8 7 8 2 7 8 60 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
WolfpackWolfpack Wolfpack114466
Longhorns 1Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1779933
Longhorns 2Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2881144
AggiesAggies Aggies335577
Aggies 1Aggies 1 Aggies 1446688
Aggies 2Aggies 2 Aggies 2557799
Green WaveGreen Wave Green Wave668811
ArgonautsArgonauts Argonauts993355

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
WolfpackWolfpack Wolfpack335577
Longhorns 1Longhorns 1 Longhorns 1881144
Longhorns 2Longhorns 2 Longhorns 2993355
AggiesAggies Aggies446688
Aggies 1Aggies 1 Aggies 1557799
Aggies 2Aggies 2 Aggies 2668811
Green WaveGreen Wave Green Wave779933
ArgonautsArgonauts Argonauts114466

Conditions — 11/15/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1025.2 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From E (84°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover23% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1025.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →