Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 28 16 44
2 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 27 43 70
3 Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls 44 44 88
4 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 49 52 101
5 American University American University Eagles 92 27 119
6 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 62 72 134
7 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinal 49 104 153
8 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 75 89 164
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 1 1 3 BKD 8 3 1 1 4 1 1 27 Rodman Brown '16 [1-12]
Dorothy Stump '18 [1-9]
Callie Hern '18 [10-12]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 3 2 2 1 1 1 8 2 2 1 2 3 28 David Rogers '15
James Stonecypher '18
Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls 5 4 3 4 3 3 4 3 7 3 3 2 44 Simon Timmerman '16
Sarah Chase '16
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinal 2 5 5 2 4 7 1 6 4 5 4 4 49 Sarah Seski '15 [1-12]
Jackie Sardinia '15 [1-8]
Samuel Mortin '16 [9-12]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4 3 BKD BKD 2 6 2 7 3 2 6 6 49 Avi Mayerhoff '17
Spencer Ochs '18
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 6 6 6 5 5 2 5 4 6 7 5 5 62 George Uehling '15
Katherine Roberts '18
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 7 8 4 6 6 4 6 5 5 6 DNS DNS 75 Mark Shortz '15 [1-12]
Timothy Deedy '17 [1-2]
Kevin Johnson '18 [3-12]
American University American University Eagles 8 7 DNS 7 7 5 7 8 8 8 DNS DNS 92 Alexina Beckley '17
Emily Clapp '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 16 Mark Thompson '18
April Lamb '17
American University American University Eagles 2 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 1 1 27 Kyle Magno '18
Farah Farouk '15
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 5 3 3 1 3 2 6 3 5 5 3 4 43 Turner Labrie '18
Nathan Ray '17
Salisbury University Salisbury University Seagulls 3 2 4 4 5 4 2 4 2 3 5 6 44 Ian Harrison '16
Rachel Weitman '16
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4 5 BKD 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 52 Brendan Brown-Mccue '16
Kenneth Myers '15
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 6 6 5 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 72 Thomas Alexander '16 [1-12]
Grace Bule '16 [1-2]
Marika Ottman '18 [3-12]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 7 7 6 7 6 DNF 4 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS 89 Colin Mercilliott '18
Margaux Jacobs '17
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinal DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 7 7 DNS DNS 104 Samuel Mortin '16
Nathaniel Tombes '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles112233445566
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinal221188776655
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps665544332211
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack334455667788
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Seagulls556677881122
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves443322118877
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos778811223344
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies887766554433

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles112233445566
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinal221188776655
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps665544332211
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack334455667788
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Seagulls556677881122
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves443322118877
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos778811223344
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies887766554433

Conditions — 10/18/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1007.4 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From WNW (289°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine7.9 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1007.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn · NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Virginia: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →