Baldwin Wood

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Rudders Rudders 11 20 31
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 21 10 31
3 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Rev's Roll Tacks 12 20 32
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 21 15 36
5 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 26 26 52
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Rudders Rudders 2 2 2 2 2 1 11 Bradley Shaw '16 [1-6]
Morgan Frakes '17 [1-2]
Matthew Kirchner '17 [3-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Rev's Roll Tacks 1 1 3 4 1 2 12 Erin Hawk '16
Hunter Meis '17
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 3 4 5 1 4 4 21 Siri Anderson '19
David Graf '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 4 5 1 3 5 3 21 Jessica Oswalt '16 [1-4]
Addison Adams '17 [5-6]
Addison Adams '17 [1-4]
Mary Duncan '11 [5-6]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 5 3 4 5 3 DNF 26 John Corrigan '17 [1-6]
Donald Mcbride '19 [1-4]
Allison Woolverton '19 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 10 Harris Cram '19 [1-6]
Katie Smalley '12 [1-2, 5-6]
Silvana Gomez Fajardo '18 [3-4]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 1 1 4 5 2 2 15 Nick Watts '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Benjamin Kaplan '17 [3-4]
Miia Newman '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Theodore Rudic '19 [3-4]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Rev's Roll Tacks 3 3 5 3 3 3 20 Walter Pospick '17 [1-4]
Carson Pepper '17 [5-6]
Carson Pepper '17 [1-4]
Walter Pospick '17 [5-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Rudders Rudders 4 4 1 1 4 DNF 20 Christopher Suarez '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Tracy Hawk '16 [3-4]
Tracy Hawk '16 [1-2]
Catherine Bristow '17 [3-6]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 5 5 3 4 5 4 26 Alexandra Betzios '18 [1-6]
Sophia Ricker '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Charlotte Barrielle '19 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Rev's Roll Tacks44881010
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Rudders Rudders559944
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 188101055
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 2994488
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 310105599

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Rev's Roll Tacks559944
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Rudders Rudders88101055
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 1994488
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 210105599
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 344881010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Erin Hawk '16 Hunter Meis '17
Rev's Roll Tacks Walter Pospick '17 [1-4]
Carson Pepper '17 [5-6]
Carson Pepper '17 [1-4]
Walter Pospick '17 [5-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Bradley Shaw '16 [1-6] Morgan Frakes '17 [1-2]
Matthew Kirchner '17 [3-6]
Rudders Rudders Christopher Suarez '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Tracy Hawk '16 [3-4]
Tracy Hawk '16 [1-2]
Catherine Bristow '17 [3-6]
Tulane University Tulane University Jessica Oswalt '16 [1-4]
Addison Adams '17 [5-6]
Addison Adams '17 [1-4]
Mary Duncan '11 [5-6]
Green Wave 1 Nick Watts '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Benjamin Kaplan '17 [3-4]
Miia Newman '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Theodore Rudic '19 [3-4]
Tulane University Tulane University Siri Anderson '19 David Graf '19
Green Wave 2 Harris Cram '19 [1-6] Katie Smalley '12 [1-2, 5-6]
Silvana Gomez Fajardo '18 [3-4]
Tulane University Tulane University John Corrigan '17 [1-6] Donald Mcbride '19 [1-4]
Allison Woolverton '19 [5-6]
Green Wave 3 Alexandra Betzios '18 [1-6] Sophia Ricker '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Charlotte Barrielle '19 [3-4]

Conditions — 09/12/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From N (351°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1013.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →