Illinois Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Washington University Washington University Bears 5 9 14
2 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 13 14 27
3 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 24 4 28
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 15 15 30
5 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 27 MRP 38 MRP 65 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Washington University Washington University Bears 1 2 1 1 5 Theodore Cohen '16
Caroline Trier '18
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 3 3 4 3 13 No Show
Jeffery Bradley '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 4 3 4 15 Jennie Werner '18 [1-4]
Mollye Lent '18 [1-2]
Anne Boniface '18 [3-4]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 24 Stephane Vinet '19 [1-4]
Ben Kosvic '19 [1-2]
Kyra Martin '18 [3-4]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 2 1 2 2 27 MRP David Aspery '16 [1-4]
Nathan Harris '17 [1-2]
Hannah Brosky '17 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 1 1 1 1 4 Geoffrey Owens '18 [1-4]
Samuel Koenig '18 [1-2]
Chuan Yin '18 [3-4]
Washington University Washington University Bears 2 2 2 3 9 Tomasz Cebrat '19
Ian Corbet '18
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 3 5 4 2 14 Paul Detrempe '18
Liam Millett '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5 3 3 4 15 Logan Peretz '18
Tristan Litre '18
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 4 4 5 5 38 MRP Abby Hoovler '16 [1-2]
Luke Lecoche '18 [3-4]
Luke Lecoche '18 [1-2]
Nathan Harris '17 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons8855
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini5577
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats6688
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes771212
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears121266

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons121266
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini6688
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats771212
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes8855
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears5577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Northwestern University Northwestern University Jennie Werner '18 [1-4] Mollye Lent '18 [1-2]
Anne Boniface '18 [3-4]
Wildcats Logan Peretz '18 Tristan Litre '18
Ohio State University Ohio State University David Aspery '16 [1-4] Nathan Harris '17 [1-2]
Hannah Brosky '17 [3-4]
Buckeyes Abby Hoovler '16 [1-2]
Luke Lecoche '18 [3-4]
Luke Lecoche '18 [1-2]
Nathan Harris '17 [3-4]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Stephane Vinet '19 [1-4] Ben Kosvic '19 [1-2]
Kyra Martin '18 [3-4]
Maroons Geoffrey Owens '18 [1-4] Samuel Koenig '18 [1-2]
Chuan Yin '18 [3-4]
University of Illinois University of Illinois No Show Jeffery Bradley '17
Illini Paul Detrempe '18 Liam Millett '19
Washington University Washington University Theodore Cohen '16 Caroline Trier '18
Bears Tomasz Cebrat '19 Ian Corbet '18

Conditions — 10/03/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.5 kn
avg  ·  max 14.7 kn
Gusts to 28.8 kn
From NE (47°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1019.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 15 kn · NE 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Illinois: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.21 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.27
Actual: about typical, within noise (+1.33 ± 0.78)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Illinois by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Illinois, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →