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Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 21 24 45
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 42 16 58
3 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 20 42 62
4 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 40 29 69
5 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 3 28 42 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 2 5 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 20 Dylan Jones '19
Adele Horbulyk '16
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 3 21 Manuel Gomez '17
Laurel Speed '16
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 3 3 3 3 5 4 2 2 1 3 2 28 Ted Alley '16
Hunter Arcese '19
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 1 4 2 5 5 5 4 5 5 40 Colin Bartels '17
Johanna Mannisto '18
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings DNS 4 5 4 2 4 4 5 4 4 42 Gabrielle Rigby '19 [1-10]
Nikoline Alden '19 [1-6]
Piper Easton '26 [7-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings DNS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 16 Brendan Kaplan '19 [1-10]
Mitchel Bolin '19 [1-6]
Cynthia Sovulewski '19 [7-10]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 2 4 2 2 3 4 2 2 1 2 24 Dylan Shaver '20
Emily Spencer '20
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 2 3 3 2 2 5 5 3 3 29 Ezra Boyer '18 [1-10]
Joanna Garcia '19 [1-4]
Veronica Owen '18 [5-10]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 3 5 5 5 4 5 3 3 4 5 42 Colin Bishop '20
Maria Isberg '20
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 3 DNF 3 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 4 42 Oliver Cannon '18
Heather Lee '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 188888888888888888888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 289898989898989898989
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 385858585858585858585
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies81818181818181818181
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings87878787878787878787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 188888888888888888888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 289898989898989898989
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 385858585858585858585
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies81818181818181818181
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings87878787878787878787

Conditions — 10/31/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn · SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.74 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →