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Emma Biagioni/Laker Showdown

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 22 28 50
2 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutch 30 30 60
3 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 45 33 78
4 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 64 21 85
5 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 40 55 95
6 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 54 45 99
7 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 50 62 112
8 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 2 63 60 123
9 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 51 74 125
10 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 84 91 175
11 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 93 96 189
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 3 1 2 6 3 1 2 3 1 22 Elliot Lee '18
Nicholas Smart '18
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutch 1 6 6 1 2 2 1 6 5 30 Libby Reeg '17
Nina Mcalvey '20
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 6 3 1 5 1 3 10 8 3 40 Austin Lee '17
Kara Applegate '20
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 10 4 5 4 10 6 3 1 2 45 Jacob Henley '17
Anna Wilhelm '17
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 4 7 8 2 8 8 4 5 4 50 Benjamin Diamond '18
Jessica Gula '17
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 5 7 10 4 4 8 4 7 51 Hannah Thayer '20
Moira Mrocca '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 7 2 4 3 9 9 5 9 6 54 Zachary Li '19
Josh Kaplan '19
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 2 5 10 3 9 6 7 7 7 9 63 Kate Cavataio '19
Matthew Harrison '19
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 9 8 11 8 7 5 6 2 8 64 Jay Weber '20 [1-2]
Christian Mcalvey '18 [3-9]
Jewel Tayler '20 [1-2, 5-9]
Lindsay Jessmore '19 [3-4]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 8 9 10 11 5 10 9 11 11 84 Justin Edick '19
David Inman '18
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes DNS DNS 9 7 11 11 11 10 10 93 Patrick Burns '16 [1-9]
Sarah Sumich '19 [1-8]
Barbara Nainiger '19 [9]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 6 21 Rachel Rantanen '19
Rebecca Meyer '19
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 1 2 5 4 7 2 1 1 5 28 Addison Amstutz '19
Nichole Kievit '19
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutch 4 4 4 3 6 1 4 3 1 30 Caroline Ritter '18
Elizabeth Morehead '19
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 6 3 2 2 4 7 2 4 3 33 Nicholas Harris '17 [1-9]
Nathan Miller '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Bryan Larue '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 8 8 3 6 2 4 5 5 4 45 Jennie Werner '18
Guilherme Vendemiatti '19
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 6 9 55 David Resnick '18 [1-9]
Jillian Vogley '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Bryce Gandy '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 2 7 7 7 5 5 9 6 7 7 60 Jacob Weesies '20 [1-9]
Benjamin Townsend '20 [1-4]
Connor Koryto '20 [5-9]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 2 5 8 11 9 8 9 8 2 62 Cortney Kingsley '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Riley Sorber '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Alissa Chrisekos '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Greg Tarmann '20 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 9 9 9 9 8 5 8 9 8 74 Kyle Doyle '20
Nicholas Reynolds '19
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 10 10 10 8 10 OCS 11 10 10 91 Joseph Cinal '20 [1-6]
Dylan Sabo '19 [7-9]
Jacob Pledger '18 [1-6]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 11 11 96 Olivia Kruczynska '19
Pierce Ciccone '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 1113355779
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 22244668810
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutch3355779911
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen44668810101
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines10101133557
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans55779911112
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One66881010113
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats77991111224
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats88101011335
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes99111122446
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos11112244668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 12244668810
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 23355779911
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutch44668810101
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen55779911112
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines11112244668
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans66881010113
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One77991111224
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats88101011335
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats99111122446
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes10101133557
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos113355779
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Elliot Lee '18 Nicholas Smart '18
Lakers 1 Addison Amstutz '19 Nichole Kievit '19
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Kate Cavataio '19 Matthew Harrison '19
Lakers 2 Jacob Weesies '20 [1-9] Benjamin Townsend '20 [1-4]
Connor Koryto '20 [5-9]
Hope College Hope College Libby Reeg '17 Nina Mcalvey '20
Flying Dutch Caroline Ritter '18 Elizabeth Morehead '19
Hope College Hope College Justin Edick '19 David Inman '18
Flying Dutchmen Joseph Cinal '20 [1-6]
Dylan Sabo '19 [7-9]		 Jacob Pledger '18 [1-6]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Jay Weber '20 [1-2]
Christian Mcalvey '18 [3-9]		 Jewel Tayler '20 [1-2, 5-9]
Lindsay Jessmore '19 [3-4]
Spartans Rachel Rantanen '19 Rebecca Meyer '19
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Jacob Henley '17 Anna Wilhelm '17
Husky One Nicholas Harris '17 [1-9] Nathan Miller '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Bryan Larue '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Benjamin Diamond '18 Jessica Gula '17
Wildcats Cortney Kingsley '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Riley Sorber '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Alissa Chrisekos '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Greg Tarmann '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Zachary Li '19 Josh Kaplan '19
Wildcats Jennie Werner '18 Guilherme Vendemiatti '19
Ohio State University Ohio State University Patrick Burns '16 [1-9] Sarah Sumich '19 [1-8]
Barbara Nainiger '19 [9]
Buckeyes Olivia Kruczynska '19 Pierce Ciccone '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Hannah Thayer '20 Moira Mrocca '19
Wolverines Kyle Doyle '20 Nicholas Reynolds '19
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Austin Lee '17 Kara Applegate '20
Broncos David Resnick '18 [1-9] Jillian Vogley '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Bryce Gandy '20 [3-4, 7-8]

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From E (93°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine4.4 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1016.3 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · NW 5 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hope: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hope by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Hope, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →