Laser North

HostKings Point
Date09/10/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	22
2	Queen's University	Brendan Aulthouse '17	43
3	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Cooper Siepert '20	53
4	Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	55
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	65
6	Queen's University	Will Jones '17	69
7	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Ryan Wood '17	95
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	97
9	SUNY Maritime College	Juan Lejarraga '19	102
10	SUNY Maritime College	Arthur Libby '17	111
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	118
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Ian Beckley '20	123
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Philip Davis '20	139
14	Webb Institute	Max Pierce '20	172

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	2	3	1	3	2	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	22
Queen's University	Brendan Aulthouse '17	9	1	8	6	6	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	43
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Cooper Siepert '20	7	4	5	7	4	5	3	4	3	3	3	5	53
Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	3	2	6	1	13	3	5	3	6	5	4	4	55
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	4	5	10	4	1	2	4	5	5	6	12	7	65
Queen's University	Will Jones '17	13	6	7	2	7	6	7	6	4	4	5	2	69
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Ryan Wood '17	8	11	3	10	12	8	6	7	7	7	6	10	95
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	10	7	2	12	9	10	8	8	8	10	7	6	97
SUNY Maritime College	Juan Lejarraga '19	6	9	4	9	3	7	12	11	11	12	10	8	102
SUNY Maritime College	Arthur Libby '17	1	13	12	5	10	9	10	10	10	9	9	13	111
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	5	10	11	11	11	13	11	9	9	8	8	12	118
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Ian Beckley '20	11	8	9	8	5	11	13	12	13	11	11	11	123
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Philip Davis '20	12	12	13	13	8	12	9	13	12	13	13	9	139
Webb Institute	Max Pierce '20	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	172

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
— in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A 14 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	John Ruitenberg '19	Queen's University Gaels 1	12/12	1.45^u	5.00	+3.55	36th → 99th	26.3	<1%	1.8 / 7.8
2	Brendan Aulthouse '17	Queen's University Gaels 2	12/12	1.52	3.35	+1.83	38th → 89th	10.3	2%	3.6 / 7.7
3	Cooper Siepert '20	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3	12/12	2.00	3.03	+1.03	52nd → 83rd	3.8	16%	4.4 / 6.6
4	Daniel Birmingham '17	Cornell University	12/12	1.76	2.72	+0.96	43rd → 72nd	3.2	7%	4.6 / 7.2
5	Connor Swikart '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	12/12	2.20	2.42	+0.22	58th → 62nd	0.2	34%	5.4 / 6.2
6	Will Jones '17	Queen's University Gaels 3	12/12	1.28	2.39	+1.11	30th → 61st	4.4	13%	5.8 / 8.2
7	Ryan Wood '17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	12/12	1.20	1.82	+0.61	28th → 44th	1.6	39%	7.9 / 8.4
8	Devin Keister '18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	12/12	1.57	1.75	+0.18	39th → 43rd	0.1	61%	8.1 / 7.6
9	Juan Lejarraga '19	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	12/12	1.35	1.57	+0.22	31st → 39th	0.2	59%	8.5 / 8.0
10	Arthur Libby '17	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	12/12	1.81	1.17	−0.64	44th → 27th	2.0	85%	9.2 / 7.1
11	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	12/12	1.68	1.22	−0.45	41st → 29th	1.1	88%	9.8 / 7.3
12	Ian Beckley '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	12/12	1.83	0.94	−0.88	45th → 21st	4.1	97%	10.2 / 7.0
13	Philip Davis '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4	12/12	1.81	0.41	−1.40	44th → 12th	10.5	99%	11.6 / 7.1
14	Max Pierce '20	Webb Institute	12/12	1.02^u	—	—	23rd → —	19.1	>99%	14.3 / 8.7

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1015.2 hPa

Temperature

81°F

↑ 87°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 88°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.6 kn

avg · max 9.9 kn

Gusts to 22.5 kn

From SSE (155°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1015.2 hPa Rain0.12 in

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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