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Richard B Ross College Bowl

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 10 10
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 11 11
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 13 13
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 26 26
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 31 31
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 38 MRP 38 MRP
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 38 38
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 38 38
9 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 1 42 42
10 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 51 51
11 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 2 57 57
12 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 75 MRP 75 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 3 1 4 1 10
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 1 5 1 2 11
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 3 2 3 2 3 13
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 4 4 8 5 26
Boston University Boston University Terriers 7 6 6 5 7 31
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 5 2 3 4 38 MRP
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8 9 8 7 6 38
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 9 8 7 6 8 38
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 1 6 7 9 10 10 42
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 10 10 10 9 12 51
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 2 12 11 11 12 11 57
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 11 12 12 11 9 75 MRP
School Team Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers SkipperSamuel Wright '18
CrewJacqueline Farnsworth '17
Brown University Brown University Bears SkipperJames Woodwell '18
CrewDavis Tantillo '19
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners SkipperHuxley Conner '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies SkipperIan Campbell '19
CrewDonal Ryan '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 SkipperAndrew Savage '19
CrewGrace Materne '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 SkipperAaron Klein '18
CrewAlexandra Arsenault '20 [1-3]
CrewNihal Pai '20 [4-5]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 SkipperNicholas Giacobbe '19
CrewLucy Robison '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 SkipperSteven Honig '19
CrewGrant Tilson '20
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 1 SkipperHanna Desilets '17
CrewMichaela Carrier '17 [1-3]
CrewShannon McKeown '18 [4-5]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 2 SkipperIsabel Rombult '19
CrewCourtney Grippin '17 [1-3]
CrewAlix Blair '18 [4-5]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats SkipperCaroline Edwards '20
CrewJenna O'del '20 [1-3]
CrewNoah Stern '18 [4-5]

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  12 boats · 5 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Andrew Savage '19Tufts University Jumbos 15/50.832.79+1.9667th → 99th6.02%2.0 / 5.7
2Aaron Klein '18Tufts University Jumbos 25/50.942.58+1.6472nd → 99th4.54%2.2 / 5.5
3Nicholas Giacobbe '19Tufts University Jumbos 35/51.362.27+0.9187th → 99th1.715%2.6 / 4.6
5James Woodwell '18Brown University5/51.010.97−0.0375th → 73rd0.052%5.2 / 5.3
6Samuel Wright '18Boston University5/50.660.75+0.0857th → 61st0.057%6.2 / 6.0
7Ian Campbell '19Northeastern University5/50.490.31−0.1949th → 39th0.173%7.6 / 6.4
7Steven Honig '19Tufts University Jumbos 45/50.340.32−0.0240th → 40th0.067%7.6 / 6.7
9Hanna Desilets '17University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 15/5-0.550.06+0.602nd → 18th0.947%8.4 / 8.5
10Caroline Edwards '20University of New Hampshire5/5-0.48-0.65−0.163rd → 1st0.183%10.2 / 8.4
11Huxley Conner '19Maine Maritime Academy5/50.19-1.36−1.5522nd → 1st6.999%11.0 / 7.0
12Isabel Rombult '19University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 25/5-0.04-1.45−1.4115th → 1st5.599%11.4 / 7.5

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1018.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From NNW (346°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1018.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →