Cazenovia Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 22 17 39
2 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 21 30 51
3 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 40 38 78
4 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 43 35 78
5 Raiders Raiders Raiders 35 45 80
6 Gannon University Gannon University Knights 51 45 96
7 IUP IUP IUP 76 76 152
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 1 1 2 1 5 2 5 1 1 2 21 Parker Klebahn '22 [1-8]
Zachary Warner '19 [9-10]
John Lightcap '20 [1-6]
Diego Becerra '21 [7-10]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 3 1 3 1 1 4 3 2 1 22 Alex Fowkes '20
Miranda Sannino '20
Raiders Raiders Raiders 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 4 4 4 35
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 2 2 4 4 2 DSQ 2 5 6 5 40 Brent Calabresi '20 [1-10]
Jieming Zhang '20 [1-4]
Harrison Kern '21 [5-6]
Cathal Brannigan '21 [7-10]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 6 6 6 5 6 5 1 2 3 3 43 John Colby '20 [1-6]
Julia Howard-Flanders '21 [7-10]
Emmet Raichle '21 [1-6]
Samuel Mcarthur '20 [7-10]
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 5 5 5 6 3 4 6 6 5 6 51 Michal Szelwach '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Andrew Burris '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Samantha Lee '19 [1-2, 7-10]
Michal Szelwach '19 [3-4]
Andrew Burris '19 [5-6]
IUP IUP IUP 7 7 7 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 76
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 1 1 6 3 1 1 1 1 1 17 Sajan Alagiri '21
Jessie Stoller '21
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 5 4 3 1 1 2 5 3 2 4 30 Tiago Da Costa '19 [1-10]
Elizabeth Cloherty '19 [1-8]
Maeve Wurtz '19 [9-10]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 3 5 5 2 2 3 2 5 3 5 35 Miranda Burford '20
Regina Trejo '21
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 2 2 2 5 4 6 3 2 6 6 38 Caroline Ware '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sean Kilcullen '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Harrison Kern '21 [1-4]
Cathal Brannigan '21 [5-6]
Jichi Ge '18 [7-8]
Jieming Zhang '20 [9-10]
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 4 3 6 3 6 4 6 6 5 2 45 Angela Mackay '20 [1-10]
Megan Bessel '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Wesley Wohlford '21 [5-8]
Raiders Raiders Raiders 6 6 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 45
IUP IUP IUP 7 7 7 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 76
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
RaidersRaiders Raiders11335577
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red22446611
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights33557722
IUPIUP IUP44661133
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets77224466
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 155772244
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 266113355

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
RaidersRaiders Raiders22446611
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red33557722
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights44661133
IUPIUP IUP55772244
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets11335577
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 166113355
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 277224466
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cornell University Cornell University Alex Fowkes '20 Miranda Sannino '20
Big Red Sajan Alagiri '21 Jessie Stoller '21
Gannon University Gannon University Michal Szelwach '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Andrew Burris '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Samantha Lee '19 [1-2, 7-10]
Michal Szelwach '19 [3-4]
Andrew Burris '19 [5-6]
Knights Angela Mackay '20 [1-10] Megan Bessel '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Wesley Wohlford '21 [5-8]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Parker Klebahn '22 [1-8]
Zachary Warner '19 [9-10]
John Lightcap '20 [1-6]
Diego Becerra '21 [7-10]
Orange 1 Tiago Da Costa '19 [1-10] Elizabeth Cloherty '19 [1-8]
Maeve Wurtz '19 [9-10]
Syracuse University Syracuse University John Colby '20 [1-6]
Julia Howard-Flanders '21 [7-10]
Emmet Raichle '21 [1-6]
Samuel Mcarthur '20 [7-10]
Orange 2 Miranda Burford '20 Regina Trejo '21
University of Rochester University of Rochester Brent Calabresi '20 [1-10] Jieming Zhang '20 [1-4]
Harrison Kern '21 [5-6]
Cathal Brannigan '21 [7-10]
Yellowjackets Caroline Ware '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sean Kilcullen '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Harrison Kern '21 [1-4]
Cathal Brannigan '21 [5-6]
Jichi Ge '18 [7-8]
Jieming Zhang '20 [9-10]

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1026.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From N (354°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1026.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Syracuse: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.46 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Syracuse by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Syracuse, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →