Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 28 23 51
2 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 29 26 55
3 American University American University Eagles 55 11 66
4 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 31 38 69
5 University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers 25 49 74
6 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 33 44 77
7 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 31 50 81
8 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 56 47 103
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers 2 3 4 1 1 6 3 5 25 Aaron Fairchild '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Bryce Merrill '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Mckenzie Brown '21 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 4 1 3 6 4 1 1 8 28 Jillian Ticatch '21 [1-4]
Marion Hopkinson '20 [5-8]
Michael Van Meter '20 [1-4]
Katarina Catallo '20 [5-8]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 1 5 2 4 2 5 6 4 29 Jacob Stoner '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Howard '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Umd Test '25 [1-2, 5-8]
Jessica Stimely '18 [3-4]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 3 2 6 2 6 4 5 3 31 Adam Augustine '19
Ian Misiak '21
Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 5 4 1 3 DNF 3 4 2 31
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 7 6 7 5 3 2 2 1 33 Will Brooks '19
Caroline Eberhardt '18
American University American University Eagles 6 8 8 8 5 7 7 6 55 Stephen Anderson '18 [1-8]
Dylan Brady '19 [1-6]
Arin Kaye '21 [7-8]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies BKD 7 5 7 7 8 8 7 56 Molly Sayles '21
Madelyn Dynes '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
American University American University Eagles 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 11 Lois Rogel Vence '18 [1-8]
Arin Kaye '21 [1-6]
Dylan Brady '19 [7-8]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 4 5 3 1 3 3 2 2 23 Alexander Knoop '20 [1-2]
Hannah Lothrop '21 [3-6]
Katie Purcell '20 [7-8]
Katie Purcell '20 [1-6]
Michael Van Meter '20 [7-8]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 3 1 1 4 4 2 6 5 26 Derek Safieh '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Madeline Mulligan '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Rachel Prucnal '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Amanda Kushner '21 [3-4, 7-8]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 4 5 3 6 7 7 4 38 Lucas Holde '20
Robert Dubman '21
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 8 8 4 5 7 6 3 3 44 Jordan Hayes '21
Hugh Barclay '20
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 7 6 8 8 2 5 4 7 47 Molly Sayles '21
Madelyn Dynes '20
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers 5 3 6 6 5 8 8 8 49 Gaston Chive '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Erik Roseberry '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Madison Plasket '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Caroline Westrick '20 [3-4]
Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 6 7 7 7 8 4 5 6 50
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles11335577
CardinalsCardinals Cardinals22446688
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps55771133
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror44668822
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack33557711
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers66882244
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos77113355
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies88224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles22446688
CardinalsCardinals Cardinals33557711
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps66882244
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror55771133
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack44668822
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers77113355
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos88224466
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Stephen Anderson '18 [1-8] Dylan Brady '19 [1-6]
Arin Kaye '21 [7-8]
Eagles Lois Rogel Vence '18 [1-8] Arin Kaye '21 [1-6]
Dylan Brady '19 [7-8]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Will Brooks '19 Caroline Eberhardt '18
Red Terror Jordan Hayes '21 Hugh Barclay '20
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Adam Augustine '19 Ian Misiak '21
Wolfpack Lucas Holde '20 Robert Dubman '21
University of Maryland University of Maryland Jacob Stoner '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Howard '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Umd Test '25 [1-2, 5-8]
Jessica Stimely '18 [3-4]
Terps Derek Safieh '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Madeline Mulligan '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Rachel Prucnal '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Amanda Kushner '21 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Aaron Fairchild '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Bryce Merrill '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Mckenzie Brown '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Pitt Panthers Gaston Chive '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Erik Roseberry '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Madison Plasket '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Caroline Westrick '20 [3-4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Jillian Ticatch '21 [1-4]
Marion Hopkinson '20 [5-8]
Michael Van Meter '20 [1-4]
Katarina Catallo '20 [5-8]
Wahoos Alexander Knoop '20 [1-2]
Hannah Lothrop '21 [3-6]
Katie Purcell '20 [7-8]
Katie Purcell '20 [1-6]
Michael Van Meter '20 [7-8]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Molly Sayles '21 Madelyn Dynes '20
Hokies Molly Sayles '21 Madelyn Dynes '20

Conditions — 10/14/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.1 kn
avg  ·  max 2.6 kn
Gusts to 7.4 kn
From ESE (114°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1023.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn · SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Virginia: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →