Cazenovia Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 23 16 39
2 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 37 29 66
3 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 62 56 118
4 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 46 80 126
5 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 75 MRP 91 MRP 166 MRP
6 Gannon University Gannon University Knights 89 82 171
7 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 101 88 189
8 Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 112 MRP 104 MRP 216 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 23 Josh Yale '20
Michael Montagnese '20
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 2 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 5 2 3 5 37 Chris Trentham '22 [1-10]
Dane Brazinski '21 [11-14]
John Lightcap '20 [1-10]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 1 5 1 3 5 2 4 2 3 2 3 7 4 4 46 Henry Sanders '18 [1-4]
Christian Palanza '21 [5-8]
Zachary Warner '19 [9-10]
Anna Strait '19 [11-14]
Regina Trejo '21 [1-4]
Patrick Mahoney '21 [5-8]
Samuel Mcarthur '20 [9-10]
Maeve Wurtz '19 [11-14]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 4 3 7 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 4 5 1 62 Douglas Cochran '21
Aoife Cannon '22
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 5 2 4 5 3 5 6 6 4 4 2 5 1 3 75 MRP Sean Kilcullen '20 [1-14]
Cathal Brannigan '21 [1-10]
Samara Levy '19 [11-14]
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 6 7 5 8 7 6 3 7 6 8 7 3 7 DNF 89 Andrew Burris '19
Helen Livingston '22
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 8 6 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 4 8 8 7 101 Simone Woolley '21
Mark Quesnel '22
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 7 8 6 6 6 7 8 5 8 5 8 6 6 6 112 MRP Jacob Watts '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Skylar Jeveli '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Emma Orndahl '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Alexandra Diwik '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 16 Lauren Sullivan '20
Sophie Carter '22
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 3 2 29 Julia Howard-Flanders '21 [1-4, 11-14]
Charlotte Smith '22 [5-10]
Sofia Berg '21 [1-4, 11-14]
David Griffin '21 [5-10]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 4 3 3 5 4 7 3 4 2 DNF 2 3 2 5 56 Benjamin Wilson '19
Tyler Tomasik '20
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 5 7 7 7 3 6 4 3 8 6 4 5 8 7 80 Lucas Fox '22 [1-4]
Miranda Burford '20 [5-14]
Jacob Correia '20 [1-8]
Olivia Wilson '22 [9-14]
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 8 6 5 8 5 3 6 5 5 4 7 4 7 DNS 82 Emily Stroh '20
Aaron Kennedy '21
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 6 4 4 6 6 8 8 8 6 7 6 7 6 6 88 Clara Bartram '22
Anton Fuchslechner '19
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 3 5 6 4 7 4 7 6 7 3 5 6 5 3 91 MRP Rebecca Saubermann '20
Jieming Zhang '20
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 7 8 8 3 8 5 5 7 4 5 8 8 4 4 104 MRP Benjamin Parker '21
Emma Gaylo '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights77881122334455
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders11223344556677
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights22334455667788
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels33445566778811
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers44556677881122
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets88112233445566
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 155667788112233
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 266778811223344

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights33445566778811
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders55667788112233
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights66778811223344
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels77881122334455
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers88112233445566
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets44556677881122
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 111223344556677
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 222334455667788
School / Team SkipperCrew
Colgate University Colgate University Jacob Watts '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Skylar Jeveli '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Emma Orndahl '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Alexandra Diwik '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Raiders Benjamin Parker '21 Emma Gaylo '21
Gannon University Gannon University Andrew Burris '19 Helen Livingston '22
Knights Emily Stroh '20 Aaron Kennedy '21
Queen's University Queen's University Josh Yale '20 Michael Montagnese '20
Gaels Lauren Sullivan '20 Sophie Carter '22
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Douglas Cochran '21 Aoife Cannon '22
Tigers Benjamin Wilson '19 Tyler Tomasik '20
Syracuse University Syracuse University Chris Trentham '22 [1-10]
Dane Brazinski '21 [11-14]
John Lightcap '20 [1-10]
Orange 1 Julia Howard-Flanders '21 [1-4, 11-14]
Charlotte Smith '22 [5-10]
Sofia Berg '21 [1-4, 11-14]
David Griffin '21 [5-10]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Henry Sanders '18 [1-4]
Christian Palanza '21 [5-8]
Zachary Warner '19 [9-10]
Anna Strait '19 [11-14]
Regina Trejo '21 [1-4]
Patrick Mahoney '21 [5-8]
Samuel Mcarthur '20 [9-10]
Maeve Wurtz '19 [11-14]
Orange 2 Lucas Fox '22 [1-4]
Miranda Burford '20 [5-14]
Jacob Correia '20 [1-8]
Olivia Wilson '22 [9-14]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Simone Woolley '21 Mark Quesnel '22
Black Knights Clara Bartram '22 Anton Fuchslechner '19
University of Rochester University of Rochester Sean Kilcullen '20 [1-14] Cathal Brannigan '21 [1-10]
Samara Levy '19 [11-14]
Yellowjackets Rebecca Saubermann '20 Jieming Zhang '20

Conditions — 09/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From W (281°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1023.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn · SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Syracuse: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.33 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Syracuse by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Syracuse, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →