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Nittany Lion Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers 4 2 6
2 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 3 7 10
3 Gannon University Gannon University Knights 9 4 13
4 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 7 7 14
5 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 11 11 22
6 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 1 9 16 25
7 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 16 12 28
8 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 18 13 31
9 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 2 13 20 33
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 2 3 Chris Trentham '22
Dario Barron '19
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers 3 1 4 Bryce Merrill '21
Madison Plasket '19
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 2 5 7 Natalie Lovelace '20
Inga Schlier '21
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 1 5 4 9 Noah Yoskowitz '19
Catherine Reedy '22
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 6 3 9 Emily Stroh '20
Riley Hessel '20
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 4 7 11 Miguel Monllor '21
Elizabeth Plaster '20
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 2 7 6 13 Victoria Castano '21
Stanley Kwok '21
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 8 8 16 Rudy Caligure '22
Max Pierce '20
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 9 9 18 Anton Fuchslechner '19
Cesar Torrejon Miralles '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers 1 1 2 Geoffrey Wells '19
Joe Bojarski '22
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 2 2 4 Rachel Stubler '21
Brianna Murosky '20
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 3 4 7 Britt Osborne '21
Emma Corbitt '19
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 4 3 7 Tiago Da Costa '19
Sophia Faram '19
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 6 11 Parker Bunting '22
Daniel Hopkins '20
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 7 5 12 Nathan Johnson '22
Jack Ryan '22
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 6 7 13 Simone Woolley '21
Presten Demarreau '19
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 1 8 8 16 Jessica Traub '20
Jessica Segal '21
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 2 DNS DNS 20 Victoria Castano '21
Stanley Kwok '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights2323
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights1919
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions 12020
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions 22121
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers2424
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange2222
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies2525
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers2626
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe2727

Division B

Team1B2B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights2424
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights2020
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions 12121
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions 22222
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Pitt Panthers2525
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange2323
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies2626
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers2727
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1919

Conditions — 10/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain
Humidity 99%  ·  Pressure 1006.5 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 33.8 kn
From NNE (16°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity99% Pressure1006.5 hPa Rain0.93 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Penn State: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.03 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Penn State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Penn State: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →