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Ross Trophy

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 31 31
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 33 33
3 University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 1 35 35
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 48 48
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 51 51
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 59 59
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 59 59
8 University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 2 65 65
9 Boston University Boston University Terriers 76 MRP 76 MRP
10 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 90 90
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 97 97
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 104 104
13 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 127 MRP 127 MRP
14 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 128 MRP 128 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 2 3 3 1 2 5 3 8 31
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 1 3 4 9 8 1 2 2 3 33
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 1 3 1 1 7 2 9 9 1 2 35
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 2 8 8 1 6 8 6 5 4 48
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 8 4 2 2 4 6 7 7 11 51
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 9 9 5 4 3 3 10 9 7 59
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 12 7 11 10 9 4 1 4 1 59
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 2 10 6 7 5 5 10 8 8 6 65
Boston University Boston University Terriers 7 5 6 6 7 5 3 12 5 76 MRP
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 11 12 9 8 10 13 4 13 10 90
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 6 10 14 RDG 13 14 11 6 12 97
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 13 13 10 12 14 11 12 10 9 104
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 5 11 13 13 12 12 14 14 13 127 MRP
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech DNS 14 12 11 11 7 13 11 14 128 MRP
School Team Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers SkipperRaymond Groble IV '21
CrewKyle Dochoda '21
CrewTrent Chismar '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 SkipperCamden Baer '21 [1-2,5-6,9]
CrewJuan Briano '21 [1-2,5-6,9]
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 SkipperAidan Biondi '22
CrewJustin Chiang '21 [1-5]
CrewAlexander Rothberg '21 [6-9]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 SkipperEvan Robison '21
CrewVinicius Freitas '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 SkipperRobert Bartlett '21
CrewMargo Muyres '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 SkipperAlexandra Talbot '22
CrewPaige Tyler '22 [1-5]
CrewJessica Carter '22 [6-9]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 SkipperDorothy Waskow '22
CrewRose O'Neal '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 SkipperWilliam DeLong '22
CrewSamantha Zwecker '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 SkipperLera Anders '22
CrewMo Liu '22 [1-5]
CrewZoe Willig '22 [6-9]
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 1 SkipperBenjamin Geffken '20
CrewMauricio Angelone '20
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 2 SkipperMax Godbey '19
CrewJasmine Hinkey '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams SkipperPeter Gunn '20
CrewNicholas Chaloux '20
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue SkipperKate Azar '21
CrewMeghan Timmons '21
CrewOlivia LaRoche '22 [1-5]
CrewMatilda Berke '21 [6-9]
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech SkipperBenjamin Louttit '22
CrewAdam Camilli '19
CrewLanhao Mao '19

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  14 boats · 9 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Peter Gunn '20University of Rhode Island9/90.872.33+1.4668th → 99th7.63%3.4 / 7.3
2Robert Bartlett '21Tufts University Jumbos 29/90.772.13+1.3762nd → 99th6.83%3.7 / 7.5
3Benjamin Geffken '20University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 19/91.001.95+0.9574th → 99th3.68%3.9 / 6.9
4Alexandra Talbot '22Tufts University Jumbos 39/90.681.64+0.9657th → 93rd3.914%5.3 / 7.8
5Aidan Biondi '22Brown University Bears 29/90.911.47+0.5671st → 89th1.428%5.7 / 7.1
6Raymond Groble IV '21Boston University9/91.901.18−0.7297th → 79th3.281%6.2 / 4.7
7Lera Anders '22Tufts University Jumbos 69/90.860.99+0.1368th → 73rd0.139%6.6 / 7.3
7William DeLong '22Tufts University Jumbos 59/91.031.24+0.2175th → 83rd0.248%6.6 / 6.8
9Max Godbey '19University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 29/90.271.19+0.9238th → 81st3.724%7.2 / 8.8
10Camden Baer '21Brown University Bears 19/90.620.36−0.2655th → 41st0.483%10.0 / 7.9
11Evan Robison '21Tufts University Jumbos 19/90.88-0.24−1.1269th → 7th6.297%11.2 / 7.2
12Dorothy Waskow '22Tufts University Jumbos 49/90.57u-0.25−0.8254th → 7th3.696%11.6 / 8.0
13Kate Azar '21Wellesley College9/90.11-0.45−0.5620th → 3rd1.491%11.9 / 9.2
14Benjamin Louttit '22Worcester Polytechnic Institute9/90.43-0.31−0.7445th → 5th2.497%12.0 / 8.4

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.5 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From NW (326°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1018.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →