Cazenovia Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 12 16 28
2 University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 29 14 43
3 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 29 20 49
4 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 25 43 68
5 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 36 37 73
6 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 39 38 77
7 Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 64 64 128
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 12 Cameron Wallace '22
Margaret Wilkins '22
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 4 2 2 1 6 4 5 1 25 Michael Jarecki '22
Catherine Reedy '22
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 3 6 4 5 2 3 2 4 29 Scott Mckinney '21 [1, 4-8]
Eric Elias '22 [2-3]
Jieming Zhang '20 [1, 4-8]
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 2 29 Geoffrey Wells '19
Mckenzie Brown '21
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 6 4 3 3 4 5 6 5 36 Lauren Manney '23 [1-8]
William Siegener '23 [1-6]
Douglas Cochran '21 [7-8]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 3 6 6 5 6 4 DNF 39 Chris Trentham '22 [1-3]
Niall Shannon '20 [4-8]
David Griffin '21 [1-3]
Brooke Schneider '20 [4-8]
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 14 Stanley Galloway '22
Madeline Love '23
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 2 16 Benjamin Stevens '22
Aryeh Kozuch '22
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 1 4 4 3 2 2 3 1 20 Sean Kilcullen '20 [1, 4-6]
Hugh Rider '22 [2-3]
Bartholomew Skala '23 [7-8]
Feiyang Deng '20 [1, 4-8]
Daniel Nadj '23 [2-3]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 37 Ethan Hall '23
Nicole Dulieu '24
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 4 5 3 6 4 4 6 6 38 Alec Wyers '23 [1-4]
Elliot Taft '23 [5-8]
Emily Baum '21 [1-4]
Anne Caldwell '20 [5-8]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 6 6 6 5 6 6 4 4 43 Joshua Nale '20 [1-8]
Sarah Jensen '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Guilherme Reis '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders11133355
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions33355577
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers77711133
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels44466688
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers55577711
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets88822244
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange66688822

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders22244466
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions44466688
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers88822244
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels55577711
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers66688822
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets11133355
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange77711133

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.8 kn
avg  ·  max 4.3 kn
Gusts to 9.7 kn
From ENE (74°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1022.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn · SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Syracuse: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Syracuse by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Syracuse, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →