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Kingsmill Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 William and Mary William and Mary Griffin 7 12 19
2 University of Virginia University of Virginia Hoos 13 9 22
3 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 16 16 32
4 American University American University Eagles 20 14 34
5 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Fighting Gobblers 13 27 40
6 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terrapins 26 15 41
7 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 19 26 45
8 St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 34 27 61
9 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 32 35 67
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
William and Mary William and Mary Griffin 1 1 1 4 7 Constantyn Van Der Voort '23
Gabrielle Buffaloe '23
University of Virginia University of Virginia Hoos 2 5 3 3 13 Matthew Weisenfluh '20 [1-4]
Kieran Mcmahon '22 [1-2]
Caroline O'Keeffe '21 [3-4]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Fighting Gobblers 6 2 4 1 13 Christopher Magno '22
Griffin Wagner '23
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 3 4 2 7 16 Clare Wagner '22
Maureen Mcgarry '21
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 3 6 5 19 Audrey Fulk '19
Michael Gibson '23
American University American University Eagles 7 6 5 2 20 Cala Coffman '21
Fan Tai Bridges '21
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terrapins 4 9 7 6 26 Ryan Dorsey '20
Anna O'Connell '22
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 8 7 8 9 32 Gage Mandrell '23
Andrew Tran '23
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 9 8 9 8 34 Brooke Murphy-Petri '23
Katherine Quinn '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Hoos 1 2 3 3 9 Emma Sullivan '23
Helen Bechler '22
William and Mary William and Mary Griffin 2 1 8 1 12 Nathan Whisner '23
Emma Powers '23
American University American University Eagles 4 6 2 2 14 John Spiccioli '22 [1-4]
Marty Isaacson '22 [1-2]
Charles Degen '23 [3-4]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terrapins 3 3 4 5 15 Michal Tyrlik '20
Elizabeth Keller '22
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 6 5 1 4 16 Chris Lukas '21 [1-2]
Alex Walters '22 [3-4]
Ryan Delaney '22 [1-2]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 4 7 DSQ 26 Daisy Griffin '23
Mariah Lee '22
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 7 8 6 6 27 John Monday '19
Jonah Donis '23
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Fighting Gobblers 8 7 5 7 27 David Fehrle '21
Jackson Livanec '21
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 9 9 9 8 35 Jonathan Kelly '23
John Mecca '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles1133
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals2244
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terrapins4466
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies3355
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Hoos5577
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Fighting Gobblers6688
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen7799
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Griffin9922
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe8811

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles2244
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals3355
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terrapins5577
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies4466
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Hoos6688
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Fighting Gobblers7799
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen8811
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Griffin1133
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe9922

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1024.3 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From ESE (109°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1024.3 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at William and Mary: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →