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Owlapalooza

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 15 23 38
2 University of Colorado at Boulder University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 26 19 45
3 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 3 29 16 45
4 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 20 27 47
5 Rice University Rice University Owls 2 39 39 78
6 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 26 57 83
7 University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 33 56 89
8 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 49 47 96
9 Rice University Rice University Owls 1 57 42 99
10 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 62 58 120
11 Texas Tech University Texas Tech University Red Raider 90 30 120
12 Baylor University Baylor University Bears 1 57 67 124
13 Baylor University Baylor University Bears 2 71 65 136
14 Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 62 90 152
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 1 3 2 4 4 1 15 Ota Dvorak '22
Lillian Andersen '21
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 3 2 5 3 1 6 20 Karina Bertelsmann '22
Warren Wegener '23
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 7 9 2 2 4 26 Andres Boccalandro '21 [1-6]
José Olvera '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Nicolas Mauer '23 [3-4]
University of Colorado at Boulder University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 7 1 7 1 5 5 26 Flynn Hill '23 [1-6]
Zoe Papier '22 [1-4]
Weston Luke '21 [5-6]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 3 11 4 3 6 3 2 29 Gabriella Wong '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Frederik Winguth '21 [3-4]
Frederik Winguth '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Gabriella Wong '20 [3-4]
University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 5 8 1 5 11 3 33 Meri Keskimaula '22
Brendan Frederick '21
Rice University Rice University Owls 2 4 6 4 9 9 7 39 Loren Young '21
Noah Rossi '23
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 6 11 6 8 8 10 49 Israel Calimano '21
Lorin Dollar '22
Baylor University Baylor University Bears 1 8 12 12 7 6 12 57 Chris Helms '19
Brianna Bates '23
Rice University Rice University Owls 1 10 5 10 12 12 8 57 Carter Walker '20
Callum Parks '22
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 9 13 11 13 7 9 62 Marisa Soto '20 [1-2]
Sydney Boucher '24 [3-6]
Kameron Rios '24 [1-6]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 13 10 8 10 10 11 62 Natalie Kulka '21
Dahlia Martinez '20
Baylor University Baylor University Bears 2 12 9 13 11 13 13 71 John Bilyou '21 [1-3, 5-6]
Katherine Kozan '22 [4]
Cailie Dapier '21 [1-3, 5-6]
Mckenna Peterson '23 [4]
Texas Tech University Texas Tech University Red Raider DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 No Show
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SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 3 1 8 1 1 4 1 16 Caroline Dubois-Weber '23 [1-6]
Mckenzie Kotara '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mariana Caldas '20 [3-4]
University of Colorado at Boulder University of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes 2 9 2 3 1 2 19 Nicholas Elsasser '22 [1-6]
Morgan Clemens '22 [1-2]
Destin Woods '22 [3-4]
Zoeanne Missner '23 [5-6]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 3 2 4 4 5 5 23 John Mason '23
Thomas Norman '23
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 5 1 7 2 8 4 27 Theresa Mccomiskey '22 [1-6]
Taima Crean '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Vojtech Pavlis '22 [3-4]
Texas Tech University Texas Tech University Red Raider 6 10 3 5 3 3 30 Rachel Mittman '22 [1-6]
Bryan Orellana '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Ashleigh Crawford '22 [3-4]
Rice University Rice University Owls 2 4 4 6 6 13 6 39 Carter Walker '20
Theodore Frick '21
Rice University Rice University Owls 1 7 6 9 7 2 11 42 Loren Young '21
Theodore Frick '21
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 11 5 5 8 11 7 47 Joseph Rogalski '19
Korbin Podolak '23
University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 9 11 8 9 10 9 56 Jamie Weston '22 [1-2]
Emma Cooledge '20 [3-6]
Emma Cooledge '20 [1-2]
Daniel Leffman '23 [3-6]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 8 7 12 13 9 8 57 Nolan Bradberry '20 [1-6]
Jonathan Connolly '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Joshua Falcone '19 [3-4]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 10 3 10 10 12 13 58 Sydney Rockwell '23
Vanessa Tetzlaff '21
Baylor University Baylor University Bears 2 12 12 11 12 6 12 65 Annie Arvidson '22
Cassidy Stiles '23
Baylor University Baylor University Bears 1 13 13 13 11 7 10 67 Daniela Zirkle '22
Gabby Hicks '21
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 No Show
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Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears 1113355
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears 2224466
University of Colorado at BoulderUniversity of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes101012121414
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack335577
University of North TexasUniversity of North Texas Mean Green1111131311
Rice UniversityRice University Owls 1446688
Rice UniversityRice University Owls 2557799
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 11212141422
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 213131133
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 314142244
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies66881010
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders77991111
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies8810101212
Texas Tech UniversityTexas Tech University Red Raider9911111313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears 1224466
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears 2335577
University of Colorado at BoulderUniversity of Colorado at Boulder Buffaloes1111131311
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack446688
University of North TexasUniversity of North Texas Mean Green1212141422
Rice UniversityRice University Owls 1557799
Rice UniversityRice University Owls 266881010
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 113131133
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 214142244
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 3113355
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies77991111
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders8810101212
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies9911111313
Texas Tech UniversityTexas Tech University Red Raider101012121414
School / Team SkipperCrew
Baylor University Baylor University Chris Helms '19 Brianna Bates '23
Bears 1 Daniela Zirkle '22 Gabby Hicks '21
Baylor University Baylor University John Bilyou '21 [1-3, 5-6]
Katherine Kozan '22 [4]		 Cailie Dapier '21 [1-3, 5-6]
Mckenna Peterson '23 [4]
Bears 2 Annie Arvidson '22 Cassidy Stiles '23
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Natalie Kulka '21 Dahlia Martinez '20
Wolfpack Sydney Rockwell '23 Vanessa Tetzlaff '21
Rice University Rice University Carter Walker '20 Callum Parks '22
Owls 1 Loren Young '21 Theodore Frick '21
Rice University Rice University Loren Young '21 Noah Rossi '23
Owls 2 Carter Walker '20 Theodore Frick '21
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Andres Boccalandro '21 [1-6] José Olvera '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Nicolas Mauer '23 [3-4]
Aggies Nolan Bradberry '20 [1-6] Jonathan Connolly '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Joshua Falcone '19 [3-4]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Marisa Soto '20 [1-2]
Sydney Boucher '24 [3-6]		 Kameron Rios '24 [1-6]
Islanders No Show No Show
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Israel Calimano '21 Lorin Dollar '22
Aggies Joseph Rogalski '19 Korbin Podolak '23
Texas Tech University Texas Tech University No Show No Show
Red Raider Rachel Mittman '22 [1-6] Bryan Orellana '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Ashleigh Crawford '22 [3-4]
University of Colorado at Boulder University of Colorado at Boulder Flynn Hill '23 [1-6] Zoe Papier '22 [1-4]
Weston Luke '21 [5-6]
Buffaloes Nicholas Elsasser '22 [1-6] Morgan Clemens '22 [1-2]
Destin Woods '22 [3-4]
Zoeanne Missner '23 [5-6]
University of North Texas University of North Texas Meri Keskimaula '22 Brendan Frederick '21
Mean Green Jamie Weston '22 [1-2]
Emma Cooledge '20 [3-6]		 Emma Cooledge '20 [1-2]
Daniel Leffman '23 [3-6]
University of Texas University of Texas Ota Dvorak '22 Lillian Andersen '21
Longhorns 1 John Mason '23 Thomas Norman '23
University of Texas University of Texas Karina Bertelsmann '22 Warren Wegener '23
Longhorns 2 Theresa Mccomiskey '22 [1-6] Taima Crean '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Vojtech Pavlis '22 [3-4]
University of Texas University of Texas Gabriella Wong '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Frederik Winguth '21 [3-4]		 Frederik Winguth '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Gabriella Wong '20 [3-4]
Longhorns 3 Caroline Dubois-Weber '23 [1-6] Mckenzie Kotara '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mariana Caldas '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 11/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From ENE (58°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1023.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rice: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rice by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Rice: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →