Patrick Sullivan Burtchaell Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 15 11 26
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 15 12 27
3 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 12 16 28
4 Rice University Rice University Owls 22 23 45
5 Baylor University Baylor University Bears 29 36 65
6 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 37 34 71
7 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 38 36 74
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 3 1 3 2 1 12 Ota Dvorak '22 [1-6]
Lillian Andersen '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mariana Caldas '20 [3-4]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 4 4 1 1 4 15 Erik Schumann '22
Stephen Hahn '20
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 3 2 2 2 3 3 15 Alanna Austin '21
Isabella Bentz '24
Rice University Rice University Owls 4 1 6 5 4 2 22 Carter Walker '20
Callum Parks '22
Baylor University Baylor University Bears 7 5 3 4 5 5 29 Chris Helms '19 [1-2, 5-6]
John Bilyou '21 [3-4]
Corrinn Heinold '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Gabby Hicks '21 [3-4]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 6 6 7 6 6 6 37 Christopher Helms '20 [1-6]
José Olvera '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Connolly '23 [3-4]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 5 7 5 7 7 7 38 Kimberly Diaz '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Victoria Bender '22 [3-4]
Ben Goldberg '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ana Avramovic '20 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 2 3 1 2 1 2 11 Katherine Byrnes '21
Josephine Larkin '20
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 1 3 4 2 1 12 Kit Stoll '23
William Hoover '20
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 4 2 2 1 3 4 16 Karina Bertelsmann '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Frederik Winguth '21 [3-4]
Thomas Norman '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Warren Wegener '23 [3-4]
Rice University Rice University Owls 3 4 4 3 4 5 23 Loren Young '21
Noah Rossi '23
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 7 7 5 7 5 3 34 Nolan Bradberry '20 [1-6]
Katherine Mason '21 [1-2]
Joshua Falcone '19 [3-4]
Chrislyn Herring '21 [5-6]
Baylor University Baylor University Bears 5 5 7 5 7 7 36 Annie Arvidson '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Brock Peloquin '23 [3-4]
Brianna Bates '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Kyle Davis '20 [3-4]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 Sydney Rockwell '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Natalie Kulka '21 [3-4]
Dahlia Martinez '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Mastin '22 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears113355
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack224477
Rice UniversityRice University Owls335588
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns882244
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies447711
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave558822
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women771133

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Baylor UniversityBaylor University Bears224477
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack335588
Rice UniversityRice University Owls447711
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns113355
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies558822
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave771133
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women882244
School / Team SkipperCrew
Baylor University Baylor University Chris Helms '19 [1-2, 5-6]
John Bilyou '21 [3-4]
Corrinn Heinold '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Gabby Hicks '21 [3-4]
Bears Annie Arvidson '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Brock Peloquin '23 [3-4]
Brianna Bates '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Kyle Davis '20 [3-4]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Kimberly Diaz '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Victoria Bender '22 [3-4]
Ben Goldberg '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ana Avramovic '20 [3-4]
Wolfpack Sydney Rockwell '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Natalie Kulka '21 [3-4]
Dahlia Martinez '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Mastin '22 [3-4]
Rice University Rice University Carter Walker '20 Callum Parks '22
Owls Loren Young '21 Noah Rossi '23
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Christopher Helms '20 [1-6] José Olvera '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Connolly '23 [3-4]
Aggies Nolan Bradberry '20 [1-6] Katherine Mason '21 [1-2]
Joshua Falcone '19 [3-4]
Chrislyn Herring '21 [5-6]
Tulane University Tulane University Erik Schumann '22 Stephen Hahn '20
Green Wave Kit Stoll '23 William Hoover '20
Tulane University Tulane University Alanna Austin '21 Isabella Bentz '24
Green Wave Women Katherine Byrnes '21 Josephine Larkin '20
University of Texas University of Texas Ota Dvorak '22 [1-6] Lillian Andersen '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mariana Caldas '20 [3-4]
Longhorns Karina Bertelsmann '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Frederik Winguth '21 [3-4]
Thomas Norman '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Warren Wegener '23 [3-4]

Conditions — 11/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From N (10°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1023.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Loyola: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Loyola by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Loyola: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →