Cazenovia Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 10 10 20
2 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 29 34 63
3 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 43 34 77
4 Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 42 38 80
5 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 29 52 81
6 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 46 35 81
7 University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 53 49 102
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 Chris Trentham '22
Maren Behnke '25
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 2 2 6 3 2 3 2 5 4 29 Makenna Labor '25
Jessica Segal '21
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 5 3 3 4 4 1 4 3 2 29 Alec Wyers '23 [1-9]
Mary Haley '23 [1-6]
John Colby '20 [7-9]
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 4 6 2 7 6 7 3 2 5 42 Michael Stewart '25 [1, 3-9]
Jack Grossi '22 [2]
Elizabeth Price '25 [1, 3-9]
Sophie Boorstin '22 [2]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 3 5 5 5 7 5 6 4 3 43 Kayla Maguire '25 [1-9]
Aoife Cannon '23 [1-6]
Nicole Dulieu '24 [7-9]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 6 4 4 2 5 4 7 7 7 46 Abby Eckert '25 [1-6]
Hugh Rider '22 [7-9]
John Luby '22 [1-6]
Joseph Dapello '24 [7-9]
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 7 7 7 6 3 6 5 6 6 53 Jason "Strongbones" Case '25
Emily Mcconnell '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 10 Shay Gualdoni '25
Henry Ihle '25
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 2 3 2 2 2 3 7 7 6 34 Elliot Tindall '24 [1-9]
Elizabeth Barron '25 [1-6]
Izabella Jurczuk '24 [7-9]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 4 4 3 5 7 6 2 1 2 34 Faith Otoole '24 [1-9]
Sydney Bak '24 [1-6]
Collin Ross '25 [7-9]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 5 6 7 3 3 2 3 3 3 35 Jordan Lawrence '24 [1-9]
Kasym Qazi '24 [1-6]
Nicholas Gould '25 [7-9]
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 3 2 5 4 5 4 6 5 4 38 Alexander Levine '25
Jennifer Fleming '22
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 6 5 6 7 4 5 5 6 5 49 Aidan Reilly '24 [1-9]
Risa Bodkin '22 [1-3, 7-9]
Riley Shannon '23 [4-6]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 7 7 4 6 6 7 4 4 7 52 Robin Mckee '24
Isabella Parillo '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals555777666
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions111222333
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers777666111
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers222333444
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets666111222
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 1333444555
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 2444555777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals666777888
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions111222333
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers777888111
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers222333444
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets888111222
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 1333444666
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 2444666777
School / Team SkipperCrew
Hamilton College Hamilton College Michael Stewart '25 [1, 3-9]
Jack Grossi '22 [2]
Elizabeth Price '25 [1, 3-9]
Sophie Boorstin '22 [2]
Continentals Alexander Levine '25 Jennifer Fleming '22
Penn State University Penn State University Makenna Labor '25 Jessica Segal '21
Nittany Lions Robin Mckee '24 Isabella Parillo '24
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Kayla Maguire '25 [1-9] Aoife Cannon '23 [1-6]
Nicole Dulieu '24 [7-9]
Tigers Elliot Tindall '24 [1-9] Elizabeth Barron '25 [1-6]
Izabella Jurczuk '24 [7-9]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Chris Trentham '22 Maren Behnke '25
Orange 1 Shay Gualdoni '25 Henry Ihle '25
Syracuse University Syracuse University Alec Wyers '23 [1-9] Mary Haley '23 [1-6]
John Colby '20 [7-9]
Orange 2 Faith Otoole '24 [1-9] Sydney Bak '24 [1-6]
Collin Ross '25 [7-9]
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Jason "Strongbones" Case '25 Emily Mcconnell '22
Panthers Aidan Reilly '24 [1-9] Risa Bodkin '22 [1-3, 7-9]
Riley Shannon '23 [4-6]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Abby Eckert '25 [1-6]
Hugh Rider '22 [7-9]
John Luby '22 [1-6]
Joseph Dapello '24 [7-9]
Yellowjackets Jordan Lawrence '24 [1-9] Kasym Qazi '24 [1-6]
Nicholas Gould '25 [7-9]

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.5 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1014.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Syracuse: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Syracuse by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Syracuse, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →