Lake Virginia Invitational

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Florida Gulf Coast University Florida Gulf Coast University FGCU Eagles 9 9
2 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 2 13 13
3 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 1 15 15
4 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 17 17
5 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 3 20 20
6 Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 1 24 24
7 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 24 24
8 Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 2 27 27
9 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 3 31 31
10 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 40 40
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Florida Gulf Coast University Florida Gulf Coast University FGCU Eagles 3 1 4 1 9 James Mcgirr '24 [1-4]
Abigail Hendershot '24 [1, 3]
Abdel Rivera '23 [2, 4]
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 2 2 3 3 5 13 William Ciniski '24 [1-3]
Herminio Agront '22 [4]
Hope Hudson '23 [1-3]
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 1 1 4 7 3 15 Jason Goldsmith '23 [1-3]
Jackson Mcgeough '25 [4]
Kerstin Carroll '22 [1-2]
Elena Vaamonde '24 [3-4]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 8 6 1 2 17 Marco Distel '25
Ryan Guth '24
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 3 6 5 5 4 20 Emma Kunz '24 [1-3]
Judith Laskowski '22 [4]
Imogene Dunn '25 [1-3]
Clayton Weum '25 [4]
Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 1 5 9 2 8 24 Julian Wright '25
Aubrey Holloway '24
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 7 2 6 9 24 Alexander Chidester '24
Tanner Cummings '24
Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 2 4 7 9 7 27 Brian Sargent '22
Noelle Eberly '25
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 3 9 8 8 6 31 Justin Folan '23
Collin Lee '25
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 10 10 10 10 40 Sergio Carli '23 [1-3]
Matthew Skowronek '25 [4]
Dom Aloysius Mandigma '23 [1-3]
Jack Frankie '25 [4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles 11111
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles 22222
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles 33333
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators10101010
Florida Gulf Coast UniversityFlorida Gulf Coast University FGCU Eagles4444
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 15555
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 26666
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars 17777
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars 28888
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars 39999

Conditions — 10/16/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 88°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1013.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rollins: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.48 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →