Stony Brook Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 16 15 31
2 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 34 35 69
3 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 45 39 84
4 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 48 42 90
5 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 54 60 114
6 Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2 68 76 144
7 Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1 75 74 149
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 2 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 Payne Donaldson '24 [1-8]
Rayne Duff '25 [9-12]
Evan Spalding '24 [1-8]
Kenna Reed '24 [9-12]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 DNF 3 2 4 2 34 Jonathan Gorman '21
Jessica Schaefer '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 5 4 7 5 2 2 3 2 4 2 6 45 Christopher Adkins '23 [1-8]
Patrick Mccarron '25 [9-12]
Maeve Jackson '25 [1-8]
Ryleigh Benson '25 [9-12]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 4 4 3 3 3 1 5 5 6 6 5 3 48 Collin Ross '25
Maren Behnke '25
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 5 3 5 4 6 6 4 4 4 5 3 5 54 Kristin Hess '22
Gerrit Bittmann '24
Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2 DNF 6 7 6 7 7 7 2 5 3 6 4 68
Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1 6 7 6 5 4 5 6 DNF 7 7 7 7 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 15 Eric Heilshorn '23 [1-6]
Burke Kanemasu '25 [7-12]
Kira Shaw '23 [1-6]
Elliot Ocheltree '24 [7-12]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 2 4 2 4 3 3 3 5 2 2 2 3 35 Ryan Magill '22
Morgan Bittmann '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 3 5 2 4 4 2 4 3 1 4 4 39 Gus Schoenbucher '25 [1-8]
Josh Beavis '25 [9-12]
Keith Destaebler '24 [1-8]
Kara Lerudis '25 [9-12]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 4 2 3 3 2 2 7 1 5 4 3 6 42 Alec Wyers '23
Erin Splaine '23
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 5 5 4 5 DNF 5 4 3 6 5 DNS 2 60 Adam Zeng '24 [1-12]
Margaret Myers-Aldous '25 [1-3]
Cassidy Mullin '23 [4-6]
Rose Von Eckartsberg '25 [7-12]
Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1 6 DNF 6 7 5 7 6 7 4 7 6 5 74
Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2 7 DNF 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 6 5 7 76
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Black Knights 1Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1555777222444
Black Knights 2Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2666111333555
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners444666111333
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1111333555777
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2222444666111
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange333555777222
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers777222444666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Black Knights 1Black Knights 1 Black Knights 1666111333555
Black Knights 2Black Knights 2 Black Knights 2777222444666
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners555777222444
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1222444666111
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2333555777222
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange444666111333
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers111333555777
School / Team SkipperCrew
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Jonathan Gorman '21 Jessica Schaefer '23
Seawolves 1 Ryan Magill '22 Morgan Bittmann '24
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Kristin Hess '22 Gerrit Bittmann '24
Seawolves 2 Adam Zeng '24 [1-12] Margaret Myers-Aldous '25 [1-3]
Cassidy Mullin '23 [4-6]
Rose Von Eckartsberg '25 [7-12]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Collin Ross '25 Maren Behnke '25
Orange Alec Wyers '23 Erin Splaine '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Christopher Adkins '23 [1-8]
Patrick Mccarron '25 [9-12]
Maeve Jackson '25 [1-8]
Ryleigh Benson '25 [9-12]
Mariners Gus Schoenbucher '25 [1-8]
Josh Beavis '25 [9-12]
Keith Destaebler '24 [1-8]
Kara Lerudis '25 [9-12]
Webb Institute Webb Institute Payne Donaldson '24 [1-8]
Rayne Duff '25 [9-12]
Evan Spalding '24 [1-8]
Kenna Reed '24 [9-12]
Clippers Eric Heilshorn '23 [1-6]
Burke Kanemasu '25 [7-12]
Kira Shaw '23 [1-6]
Elliot Ocheltree '24 [7-12]

Conditions — 10/16/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1006.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.8 kn
avg  ·  max 15.0 kn
Gusts to 32.7 kn
From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1006.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 15 kn* · NW 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →