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Richard Ross College Bowl

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 4
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 11 11
3 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 1 12 12
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12 12
5 Tufts University Tufts University wellsley 22 22
6 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 2 25 25
7 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 27 27
8 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 31 31
9 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 32 32
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1 1 1 4
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 3 BKD 11
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 1 3 2 4 3 12
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 4 2 2 12
Tufts University Tufts University wellsley 7 5 5 5 22
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 2 5 6 6 8 25
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 6 7 7 7 27
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 9 8 8 6 31
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 8 DNF DNS 4 32

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  9 boats · 4 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Sam Ingalls '24University of Rhode Island4/41.337.00++5.6786th → 99th8.61%1.0 / 3.7
2Annecy Kagan '26Tufts University Jumbos4/40.711.71+1.0058th → 94th1.717%3.0 / 4.8
2Trevor Donovan '23McGill University Redbirds 14/40.821.69+0.8865th → 94th1.321%3.0 / 4.6
4Ali Zaidi '24Brown University4/40.721.98+1.2660th → 99th1.851%4.5 / 4.7
5Charlotte Versavel '25Tufts University wellsley4/41.180.28−0.9079th → 38th2.185%5.5 / 4.0
6Cecilia Muller '25McGill University Redbirds 24/40.33-0.09−0.4240th → 12th0.372%6.2 / 5.3
7Dane Phippen '23Bentley University4/40.55-0.26−0.8153rd → 6th1.687%6.8 / 5.0
8Matthew Yoder '23Wentworth Institute of Technology4/4-0.36-1.76−1.404th → 1st1.983%7.8 / 6.3
9Kathleen Hanson '25University of New Hampshire4/4-0.610.20+0.812nd → 33rd0.683%8.0 / 6.7

Conditions — 09/24/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.9 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 27.4 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1010.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →