SAISA Top 9 Invite — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2022-W36). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,462 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

• ⁿ no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before*	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after*
1	Brandon Geller '23	College of Charleston Cougars A	14/14	400*	443	+44	97th → 99th	1.2	6%	3.6 / 6.0	412*
2	Axel Stordahl '24	College of Charleston Cougars B	14/14	349*	379	+30	92nd → 95th	0.7	22%	6.1 / 7.6	361*
3	Atlee Kohl '25	University of Miami Hurricanes A	14/14	384*	339	-45	96th → 91st	1.7	60%	6.8 / 6.5	387*
4	Matthew King '24	Jacksonville University Fins A	9/14	340*	357	+17	91st → 93rd	0.1	32%	6.8 / 7.9	339*
4	Brent Penwarden '24	Jacksonville University Fins A	5/14	265*	290	+25	80th → 84th	0.2	27%	8.4 / 10.3	266*
5	Eden Nykamp '25	Eckerd College Tritons A	14/14	286*	324	+38	83rd → 89th	1.1	19%	7.9 / 9.7	298*
6	Joey Meagher '24	Florida State University Seminoles A	14/14	323*	326	+3	89th → 89th	0.0	50%	8.4 / 8.5	323*
7	Aidan Dennis '25	University of Miami Hurricanes B	12/14	318*	337	+19	88th → 91st	0.3	46%	8.2 / 8.6	330*
7	Zachary Ward '25	University of Miami Hurricanes B	2/14	216*	217	+1	70th → 71st	0.0	63%	13.5 / 11.9	235*
8	Emily Allen '25	Jacksonville University Fins B	11/14	336*	372	+37	90th → 94th	0.7	50%	7.9 / 8.0	343*
8	Gordon Gurnell '23	Jacksonville University Fins B	3/14	298*	246	-52	85th → 76th	0.6	88%	13.3 / 9.2	292*
9	David Manley '23	University of South Carolina Gamecocks B	14/14	266*	311	+45	80th → 87th	1.5	29%	9.1 / 10.3	273*
10	Adam Larson '24	North Carolina State University Wolfpack A	14/14	361*	278	-83	94th → 82nd	6.1	87%	9.2 / 7.2	355*
10	Mateo Rodriguez '23	Florida State University Seminoles B	14/14	344*	293	-51	91st → 84th	2.4	77%	9.2 / 7.8	349*
12	Humberto Porrata '25	University of South Florida Bulls A	11/14	273*	328	+55	81st → 89th	1.7	19%	8.1 / 10.1	286*
12	Zachariah Schemel '25	University of South Florida Bulls A	3/14	284*	159	-124	83rd → 58th	2.7	92%	15.0 / 9.7	291*
13	Olivia Sowa '24	North Carolina State University Wolfpack B	14/14	275*	279	+4	81st → 82nd	0.0	50%	10.1 / 10.1	273*
14	Andreas Keswater '24	University of South Florida Bulls B	14/14	224*	291	+67	72nd → 84th	3.1	30%	10.3 / 11.6	257*
15	Griffin Richardson '25	Eckerd College Tritons B	14/14	218*	245	+28	71st → 76th	0.5	50%	11.9 / 11.9	234*
16	Ian Street '23	University of South Carolina Gamecocks A	14/14	203*	252	+49	68th → 78th	1.7	45%	12.2 / 12.4	208*
17	Gregory Walters '24	The Citadel Bulldogs A	14/14	264*	195	-69	79th → 66th	3.9	96%	14.1 / 10.5	258*
18	Malcolm Mcalister '23	The Citadel Bulldogs B	6/14	30*	84	+54	29th → 41st	0.3	60%	17.0 / 16.2	25*
18	Kenneth Buck '26	The Citadel Bulldogs B	5/14	117n*	-9	-127	49th → 21st	1.7	78%	17.0 / 14.1	117*
18	Noah Frank '26	The Citadel Bulldogs B	3/14	138n*	68	-69	54th → 37th	0.4	88%	17.7 / 13.7	138*