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SAISA Top 9 Invite

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 135
2 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 221
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 230
4 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 247
5 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 270
6 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 278
7 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 278
8 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 299
9 The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs 437
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 2 1 2 16 9 3 4 1 3 1 4 1 1 2 50 Brandon Geller '23
Anna Sherry '23
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 1 7 4 12 1 1 10 8 10 7 1 10 12 1 85 Axel Stordahl '24
Lucy Klempen '24
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes A 4 4 1 7 6 12 9 15 17 4 3 2 4 7 95 Atlee Kohl '25
Natalie Elder '25
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 3 9 3 9 11 2 17 16 4 11 7 3 3 5 103 Matthew King '24 [1-2, 8-14]
Brent Penwarden '24 [3-7]
Rori Bywater '25 [1-14]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons A 6 3 5 3 7 13 1 5 7 15 5 11 15 15 111 Eden Nykamp '25
Amelia Johnson '25
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles A 5 16 15 1 10 8 3 12 13 9 10 8 2 6 118 Joey Meagher '24
Katie Nelson '24
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes B 9 12 13 5 8 7 8 3 6 3 12 13 11 16 126 Aidan Dennis '25 [1-12]
Zachary Ward '25 [13-14]
James Nappo '24 [1-12]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 11 17 12 15 5 5 5 6 12 5 DSQ 6 6 3 127 Gordon Gurnell '23 [1-3]
Emily Allen '25 [4-14]
Elisabeth Bowman '22 [1-14]
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks B 13 2 11 13 3 15 2 10 8 12 14 14 7 4 128 David Manley '23
Thomas Gallant '25
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 12 10 14 8 17 17 6 4 2 2 9 9 9 10 129 Adam Larson '24
Isabella Du Plessis '24
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles B 15 13 10 4 2 9 12 11 5 17 2 12 5 12 129 Mateo Rodriguez '23
Olivia Hanley '24
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 10 18 17 6 4 4 7 7 14 6 15 5 13 8 134 Zachariah Schemel '25 [1-3]
Humberto Porrata '25 [4-14]
Brilan Christopher '24 [1-3]
Hannah Marsicano '24 [4-14]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 8 15 7 10 13 10 16 2 1 16 6 7 17 13 141 Olivia Sowa '24
Annika Milstien '25
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 7 11 9 2 12 11 13 14 15 8 11 4 10 17 144 Andreas Keswater '24
Emmy Digiacomo '24
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons B 17 8 6 11 14 6 15 9 16 10 8 15 18 14 167 Griffin Richardson '25
Elissa Martinez '23
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks A 14 5 8 14 15 16 11 13 9 14 16 17 8 11 171 Ian Street '23
Anna Soykan '25
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs A 16 6 18 17 16 14 14 18 11 13 13 16 16 9 197 Gregory Walters '24
Kingsland Bland '23
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs B 18 14 16 18 18 18 18 17 18 18 17 18 14 18 240 Malcolm Mcalister '23 [1-6]
Noah Frank '26 [7-9]
Kenneth Buck '26 [10-14]
Brooke Cheatham '23 [1-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars11122233344455
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs66655544433322
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons2221111818181717171616
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles33344455566677
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins4443332221111818
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes7778889991010101111
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack55566677788899
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks88877766655544
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls9991010101111111212121313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars10101099988877766
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs15151516161617171718181811
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1111111212121313131414141515
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles12121211111110101099988
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins1313131414141515151616161717
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes1616161515151414141313131212
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack1414141313131212121111111010
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks17171718181811122233
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1818181717171616161515151414

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From SSE (152°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1017.4 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn · SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Charleston: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.25 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →