The John Quinn

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 14 18 32
2 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 17 23 40
3 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 35 21 56
4 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 26 36 62
5 Dragons Dragons Dragons 37 48 85
6 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 54 33 87
7 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 44 54 98
8 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 61 56 117
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 14 Tryg Van Wyk '26 [1-8]
Annabelle O'Bryan '24 [1-4]
Ella Adelman '26 [5-8]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 3 1 3 2 1 2 3 17 Jasper Waldman '25
Chai Mauliola '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 1 4 1 6 5 5 1 26 Oscar Gilroy '27
Robert Finora '27
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 5 5 7 4 3 3 4 4 35 Austin Latimer '27
Rachel Morgen '26
Dragons Dragons Dragons 8 4 2 6 4 4 3 6 37
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 4 6 5 5 5 7 7 5 44 Ethan Deutsch '25
Ian Kaplan '25
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 7 8 6 7 7 6 6 7 54 Sarah Ward '24 [1-8]
Maddie Woolley '24 [1-4]
Isabella Hughes '24 [5-8]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 61 Kate Faranetta '24
Jack Ryan '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 2 3 4 3 2 1 2 1 18 Eva Wieting '26 [1-4]
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 [5-8]
Nick Lopez '26 [1-4]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 3 5 1 2 3 2 1 4 21 Patrick Tis '27
Nora Ciak '27
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 4 2 3 4 1 3 4 2 23 William Roberts '26
Ellen Toberman '25
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 1 1 2 1 8 7 7 6 33 Patrick Cashin '24 [1-4]
Abigail Eck '24 [5-8]
Cheyenne Fair '25 [1-4]
Joseph Bitterman '25 [5-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 6 4 5 7 4 4 3 3 36 Fordham Smith '27
Elliott Chamberland '27
Dragons Dragons Dragons 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 48
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 8 8 8 6 6 8 5 5 54 Elise Singletary '26 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Laura Macmillan '24 [2, 4, 6, 8]
John Fulkerson '26 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 5 7 7 DNF 7 5 8 8 56 Marlon Wool '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Ralph Molinari '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Karolina Debniak '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Amelia Mignone '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens88113355
DragonsDragons Dragons11335577
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries22446688
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners77992244
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks44668811
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers55779922
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights66881133
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen99224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens99224466
DragonsDragons Dragons22446688
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries33557799
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners88113355
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks55779922
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers66881133
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights77992244
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
George Washington University George Washington University Tryg Van Wyk '26 [1-8] Annabelle O'Bryan '24 [1-4]
Ella Adelman '26 [5-8]
Revolutionaries Eva Wieting '26 [1-4]
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 [5-8]
Nick Lopez '26 [1-4]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Sarah Ward '24 [1-8] Maddie Woolley '24 [1-4]
Isabella Hughes '24 [5-8]
Hawks Patrick Cashin '24 [1-4]
Abigail Eck '24 [5-8]
Cheyenne Fair '25 [1-4]
Joseph Bitterman '25 [5-8]
Princeton University Princeton University Jasper Waldman '25 Chai Mauliola '24
Tigers William Roberts '26 Ellen Toberman '25
Rutgers University Rutgers University Kate Faranetta '24 Jack Ryan '24
Scarlet Knights Marlon Wool '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Ralph Molinari '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Karolina Debniak '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Amelia Mignone '25 [3-4, 7-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Oscar Gilroy '27 Robert Finora '27
Mariners Fordham Smith '27 Elliott Chamberland '27
University of Delaware University of Delaware Ethan Deutsch '25 Ian Kaplan '25
Blue Hens Elise Singletary '26 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Laura Macmillan '24 [2, 4, 6, 8]
John Fulkerson '26 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Washington College Washington College Austin Latimer '27 Rachel Morgen '26
Shoremen Patrick Tis '27 Nora Ciak '27

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1012.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Monmouth: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Monmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →