Kathryn Hammond Memorial — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2023-W41). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,596 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

• ⁿ no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.
• — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before*	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after*
1	Michael Morse '25	Texas A&M University Aggies A	18/18	238*	279	+40	76th → 82nd	1.1	10%	2.5 / 4.4	240*
2	Ricky Miller '26	Rice University Owls A	18/18	211*	231	+20	71st → 75th	0.3	16%	3.6 / 5.0	210*
3	Jacob Granberry '26	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies A	18/18	112*	168	+56	49th → 62nd	2.8	14%	5.3 / 7.6	113*
4	Ryan Ingram '25	Texas A&M University Aggies B	18/18	107*	164	+56	48th → 61st	2.9	17%	5.6 / 7.8	109*
5	Taylor Snyder '24	University of North Texas Mean Green A	18/18	97*	159	+62	45th → 60th	3.2	16%	6.3 / 8.0	100*
6	Cole Abbott '26	Northwestern University Wildcats A	18/18	101*	161	+59	46th → 61st	3.0	26%	6.4 / 7.9	126*
7	Nicholas Carew '27	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders A	18/18	144*	115	-29	56th → 50th	0.9	50%	6.5 / 6.7	122*
8	Reese Zebrowski '26	University of Texas Longhorns A	18/18	152*	124	-28	58th → 52nd	0.7	54%	6.7 / 6.6	153*
9	Ethan Polsen '27	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies B	18/18	79*	99	+20	41st → 46th	0.4	33%	7.6 / 8.6	79*
10	Arthur Unger '25	Rice University Owls B	12/18	71*	90	+19	39th → 44th	0.2	36%	7.8 / 8.8	71*
10	Leo Marek '26	Rice University Owls B	6/18	46*	-25	-71	33rd → 18th	1.8	94%	13.7 / 9.4	46*
11	Luella Madison '24	Texas Christian University Horned Frogs A	18/18	-26*	-7	+18	18th → 22nd	0.3	48%	11.5 / 11.6	-27*
12	Timothy Verriere '24	University of North Texas Mean Green B	18/18	-9*	-35	-26	21st → 16th	0.7	75%	12.3 / 11.2	-2*
13	Herbert Single '27	Northwestern University Wildcats B	18/18	-12n*	-52	-40	21st → 14th	1.7	71%	12.9 / 11.0	-12*
14	Ana Savva Garcia '25	University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos A	18/18	-88*	-85	+4	9th → 9th	0.0	65%	14.1 / 13.2	-89*
15	Rohit Rajan '26	University of Texas Longhorns B	9/18	-7*	-146	-139	22nd → 2nd	8.0	91%	14.3 / 11.0	-8*
15	Sophia Herrada '24	University of Texas Longhorns B	6/18	-41*	-56	-15	16th → 13th	0.1	68%	13.3 / 12.0	-44*
15	Dennis Kostjuhin '27	University of Texas Longhorns B	3/18	-40n*	—	—	16th → —	12.2	93%	17.0 / 11.7	-40*
16	Ibrahim Bozkurt '24	Texas Christian University Horned Frogs B	18/18	-84*	-39	+45	9th → 16th	1.4	82%	14.8 / 13.1	-50*
17	Eduardo Gomez '25	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders B	12/18	-69n*	-111	-43	11th → 5th	1.1	68%	14.3 / 12.5	-69*
17	Hailey Howerton '24	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders B	6/18	-81*	-123	-42	9th → 4th	0.4	97%	16.8 / 13.0	-66*
18	Branden Mercer '25	University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos B	18/18	-181*	-197	-16	1st → 1st	0.1	92%	17.1 / 15.2	-181*