Protest Trophy

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 46
2 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 69
3 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 75
4 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 91
5 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 118
6 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 151
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 A 1 8 1 2 5 1 2 20 Harry Stevenson '24
Maggie Forger '25
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 B 4 4 8 1 1 7 1 26 Jett Lindelof '27 [1-7]
Greta Shuster '25 [1-6]
Matthew Straub '27 [7]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 6 1 2 3 6 2 7 27 Sean Lund '26
Abigail Forcier '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 2 2 3 6 7 4 3 27 Walter Chiles '27
Katherine Rosa '25
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 9 3 10 4 8 3 5 42 Jake Lacoche '26
Julia Cotsonas '26
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 A 8 5 4 5 4 11 6 43 Colby Green '25
Colby Michaud '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 3 6 9 DNF 3 5 9 48 Penelope Weekes '25
Weronika Wozny '27
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 B 5 7 5 8 2 8 DNF 48 Samantha Manogue '26
Amanda Jenkins '26
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen A 10 10 7 9 9 6 4 55 Andy Giaya '24 [1-4]
Cole Perra '26 [5-7]
Audrey Bilotta '26 [1-4]
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen B 7 9 6 7 11 10 DNF 63 Cole Perra '26 [1-4]
Brian Pervere '24 [5-7]
Brian Pervere '24 [1-4]
Aydin Khalifa '27 [5-7]
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech B 11 12 12 11 10 9 10 75 Jessica Elmhurst '26
Owen Miller '27
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech A 12 11 11 10 BYE DNF 8 76 Samuel Ott '24
Henry Donahue '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 11122334
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 22211121211
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen4433221
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers3344556
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats5566778
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech6655443

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 177889910
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 28877665
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen101099887
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers991010111112
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats11111212112
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech1212111110109

Conditions — 10/08/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 997.1 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.7 kn
avg  ·  max 11.5 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From WSW (240°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure997.1 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bates: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bates by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Bates, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →