Stuart Walker

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 22
2 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 24
3 Williams College Williams College Ephs 37
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 40
5 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 45
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 A 2 4 3 9 Talia Trigg '26
Christopher Fridlington '24
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen B 1 2 7 10 Cole Perra '26
Hannah Ditmars '24
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 B 6 5 2 13 Dalyan Yet '26
Isabelle Vagell '26
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen A 3 1 10 14 Andy Giaya '24
Iain Gillespie '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A OCS 6 1 18 Sonja Krajewski '26
Jack Brennen '25
Williams College Williams College Ephs B 7 7 4 18 Charles Maier '26
Caleb Ockman '25
Williams College Williams College Ephs A OCS 3 5 19 Felix Nusbaum '25
Gwyn Mclear '24
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 A 4 10 6 20 Olivia Fulghum '24
Paige Theodosopoulos '25
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 5 8 9 22 Gavin Tucker '26
Alyssa Jones '26
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 B 8 9 8 25 Aidan Ulian '27
Jake Coughlin-Ramassini '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen333
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 1111
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 2222
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats444
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs555

Division B

Team1B2B3B
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen888
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 1666
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 2777
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats999
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs101010

Conditions — 10/07/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain
Humidity 98%  ·  Pressure 1005.0 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 12.1 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From SE (138°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity98% Pressure1005.0 hPa Rain1.88 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.37 ± 0.57)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →