Kingfisher

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Washington University Washington University Bears 4 4 8
2 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 16 13 29
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 8 22 30
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 12 24 36
5 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 22 14 36
6 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 18 21 39
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 28 14 42
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Washington University Washington University Bears 1 1 1 1 4 Wyatt Tait '27
Yuxin Mou '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 2 BKD 2 2 8 Charles Crowell '28
Fiona Zhou '28
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 4 2 3 3 12 Herbert Single '27
Samuel Adeyemi '28
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 3 4 5 4 16 Silas Hokanson '26
Jackson Goehle '28
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 6 3 4 5 18 Chris Li '25
Jack Morby '27
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 5 5 6 6 22 Alexa Hind '27
Colin Gagne '24
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 7 6 DNF 7 28 Romanos Ioannis Chiliarchopoulos '28
Aekam Kaur '28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Washington University Washington University Bears 1 1 1 1 4 Xinshi Feng '27 [1-4]
Davide Prada '25 [1-2]
Nate Nowel '26 [3-4]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 6 2 2 3 13 Alexander Charlton '28
Ayden Sarber '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 2 3 4 5 14 Milo Fernandez '28
Julia Sandoval '28
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 3 4 5 2 14 Michael Mignogna '27
Joe Stroup '27
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 7 7 3 4 21 Arseniy Titov '26 [1-2]
Shuchen Cai '27 [3-4]
Shuchen Cai '27 [1-2]
Arseniy Titov '26 [3-4]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 5 5 6 6 22 Luke Sadalla '28
Sarah Brown '28
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 4 6 7 7 24 Obinnaya Okezie '28 [1-4]
Cole Abbott '26 [1-2]
Nigel Swinson '28 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini7788
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 11122
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 22233
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 33344
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes4466
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers6677
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears8811

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini7788
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 11122
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 22233
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 33344
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes4466
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers6677
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears8811

Conditions — 10/26/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 35%  ·  Pressure 1031.1 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From NNE (25°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1031.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn · S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Illinois: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.28
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.67 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Illinois by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Illinois, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →