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SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Webb Institute Webb Institute Daniel Escudero '25 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 22
Princeton University Princeton University Ossian Kamal '26 5 2 9 4 3 6 4 3 4 5 5 2 2 2 56
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Reed Mcallister '27 7 6 3 2 9 1 2 2 2 3 3 9 4 8 61
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 2 4 2 8 2 8 12 9 3 2 2 3 3 3 63
Queen's University Queen's University Julian Van Den Driessche '25 6 9 5 5 5 3 9 5 6 4 4 8 9 4 82
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Owen Harrod '26 4 5 4 6 4 12 RDG 4 5 12 7 5 5 5 84
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Jack Carter '27 8 7 7 10 6 5 RDG 8 9 6 9 6 10 7 106
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Dante Garcia '28 9 12 6 9 11 15 3 7 8 11 8 4 6 6 115
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Calvin Marsh '28 11 11 10 11 10 4 7 10 10 9 13 7 8 11 132
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Robert Finora '27 3 3 12 7 7 10 6 12 15 10 6 16 12 15 134
Queen's University Queen's University Julian Hill '26 BKD 8 11 3 12 2 8 11 13 14 12 14 7 BKD 134
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Thomas Allison '27 13 13 8 12 13 13 5 6 7 8 16 10 15 12 151
Cornell University Cornell University Marcus Greco '28 12 14 13 14 8 7 10 16 11 7 14 11 16 13 166
Fordham University Fordham University Robert Upton '27 10 10 15 16 15 11 11 13 12 15 10 13 11 10 172
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Tyler Mendes '25 15 16 14 13 14 14 13 14 DNF 13 11 12 13 14 193
Fordham University Fordham University Thomas Martino '28 14 15 16 15 16 16 14 15 14 16 15 15 14 9 204

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  16 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Daniel Escudero '25Webb Institute14/143.425.50+2.0889th → 99th10.3<1%1.6 / 4.5
2Ossian Kamal '26Princeton University14/142.433.33+0.9062nd → 88th3.37%4.0 / 6.5
3Reed Mcallister '27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 114/142.572.99+0.4267th → 82nd0.814%4.4 / 6.2
4Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 214/142.332.82+0.4960th → 77th1.09%4.5 / 6.7
5Julian Van Den Driessche '25Queen's University Gaels 114/142.512.48−0.0464th → 62nd0.043%5.9 / 6.3
6Owen Harrod '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 314/141.952.43+0.4850th → 62nd1.034%6.8 / 7.6
7Dante Garcia '28Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 114/141.261.64+0.3830th → 41st0.730%8.2 / 9.3
7Jack Carter '27Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 514/141.542.05+0.5238th → 53rd1.243%8.2 / 8.6
9Calvin Marsh '28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 314/141.381.40+0.0233rd → 34th0.056%9.4 / 9.1
10Robert Finora '27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214/141.210.66−0.5428th → 17th1.355%9.6 / 9.4
11Julian Hill '26Queen's University Gaels 214/141.191.11−0.0828th → 25th0.070%10.6 / 9.4
12Thomas Allison '27Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 414/141.210.69−0.5328th → 17th1.578%10.8 / 9.4
13Marcus Greco '28Cornell University14/140.970.32−0.6522nd → 11th2.281%11.9 / 9.8
14Robert Upton '27Fordham University Rams 114/140.600.36−0.2515th → 11th0.376%12.3 / 10.7
15Tyler Mendes '25SUNY Maritime College14/140.48-0.04−0.5114th → 6th1.393%13.8 / 11.0
16Thomas Martino '28Fordham University Rams 214/140.19-0.75−0.939th → 1st3.996%14.6 / 11.5

Conditions — 09/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1010.0 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From S (173°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1010.0 hPa Rain0.50 in

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →