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Western Canada Cup '24

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 21 24 45
2 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 22 26 48
3 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 3 37 22 59
4 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 40 29 69
5 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 39 34 73
6 University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 43 55 98
7 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 4 50 62 112
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 2 2 21 Rory Walsh '28
Jessica Hirschbold '27
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 3 5 2 4 2 3 1 1 1 22 Nelson Fretenburg '26
Emmanuella Partyka '25
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 3 4 3 6 3 6 2 4 4 5 37 Bryce Lutz '27
Lucas Spak-Walsworth '26
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 7 6 3 7 3 4 3 3 3 39 Aevyn Jackson '29
Jess Hinde '26
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 2 7 4 2 4 5 5 5 6 40 Maclain Walsworth '28
Emileigh Gray '26
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 6 4 5 5 5 1 7 6 4 43 William Cran '25
Anya Pedersen '26
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 4 5 2 7 6 7 7 2 7 7 50 Frederick Mitchell '28
Eliza Murray '28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 3 1 2 5 3 1 2 2 1 5 22 Maggie Rickman '26
Josie Van Hoek-Patterson '22
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 4 1 3 4 2 3 4 2 1 24 Mathieu Graham '28
Alex Van Der Velden '28
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 2 4 2 1 4 1 3 5 4 26 Connor Smith '27
Ming Lee '27
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 5 5 1 2 5 4 1 4 2 29 Ethan Lowenthal '25
Xavier Agustines '26
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 3 3 4 5 3 5 5 3 3 34 Nicola Fretenburg '27
Grace Dalton '25
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 55 Kai Filmer '27
Tony Ouyang '25
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 62 Tobermory Smith '29
Emily Clark '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1838389899090928484
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2848485859191838989
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue898990909292848585
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 1858591918383899090
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 2909092928484859191
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 3919183838989909292
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 4929284848585918383

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1848485859191918389
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2898990909292928485
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue858591918383838990
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 1909092928484848591
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 2919183838989899092
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 3929284848585859183
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes 4838389899090909284

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

87°F
↑ 92°F   ↓ 77°F
Feels like 91°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From ENE (66°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1014.9 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn · NE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Victoria: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Victoria by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Victoria, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →